China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are sometimes presented as a “new axis”, more or less coordinated in its shared hostility towards a declining West.
The emergence of such a front, defined in a minimalist way, is undeniable. Witness to this: the BRICS summit held in Kazan, Russia, where, from October 22 to 24, not only the representatives of the aforementioned “hard core”, but also a fairly large collection of states (nine members plus around twenty guests) wishing to rebalance international economic relations, in which the West would lead too far.
Convergence of grievances more than a common program: we agree neither on the methods nor on the ultimate designs. The BRICS have vague objectives, around a heterogeneous assembly of states, some democratic, others dictatorial, some rich, others poor, some declared anti-Western, others… not so much.
When we look in detail at the relations between these countries, and particularly three of them, we see that they differ on many issues.
* * * * *
kyiv and Washington revealed that Pyongyang sent, in October, up to 12,000 soldiers, including 500 officers, to fight Ukraine on the battlefield – revelations weakly confirmed by Vladimir Putin, then frankly confirmed by photos satellite and field videos.
The affair seriously upsets the Chinese authorities, who are certainly diplomatic and economic supporters of Russia at war, with a common adversary and a host of indirect aid (massive purchase of oil, delivery of spare parts). “civilian” equipment)… But for China, direct lethal aid to Moscow represents a taboo, a “red line” not to be crossed.
What North Korea has been doing for more than a year, however, by providing missiles and artillery shells by the hundreds of thousands… and now soldiers on the ground – a precedent since the start of the war in Ukraine.
Deliveries of American and European weapons, Western advisors, “international brigades” (individuals from various countries who enlist out of idealism), mercenaries (Russian and foreign) with the Moscow army… all this already testified of an internationalization of the conflict.
But sending entire detachments of a third country’s army is qualitatively different.
* * * * *
Why this Moscow-Pyongyang military alliance? Why is China upset?
According to North Korea specialist Andreï Lankov, quoted on the South Korean site NK News, it may be a matter of “boosting the morale of the Russian army and avoiding a new and unpopular wave of mobilization”.
Are things not going as well as they say on the ground for Russia? However, it conquered 500 square kilometers in Donbass during the month of October alone, according to the New York Times. Figure to be reported, however, to the 100,000 square kilometers occupied in total by Russia in Ukraine: 0.5%. Modest snacking.
According to Chinese strategic security specialist Zhao Tong (now in Washington), indicates The WorldChina was probably “not warned in advance”, and it is “very worried about the consequences of this commitment”. Beijing believes in particular that the United States and South Korea will use this as a pretext to strengthen their alliance, accompanied by possible direct deliveries of lethal aid from Seoul to kyiv…
In this episode, Russia and North Korea fully assume their roles as “pariah states” disrupting the international order… and add a disgruntled “godfather”, who no longer really controls them. Unlike the other two, he is linked to this order (economically). Even if its long-term political and diplomatic objective also includes a desire for subversion and overthrow.
But not so quickly, and not in this way.
To contact the author: [email protected]
