Each camp seems to be in a show of force and seeking to strengthen these positions in the region, while between Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, China continues its threats towards Taiwan, increasing its exercises and its military presence. This Sunday, Taiwanese authorities said they had detected 37 Chinese planes and drones, including fighter planes, near the island, as part of “long-distance” training flights led by Beijing.
South Korea, Japan and the United States conducted joint air exercises on Sunday with an American strategic bomber, the South Korean military announced, after Pyongyang's longest missile launch. These exercises are being held three days after Pyongyang launched one of its solid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), one of the most powerful and advanced in its arsenal, capable, according to experts, of reaching targets in the United States.
The US B-1B bomber, South Korean F-15K and KF-16 fighter jets, as well as Japanese F-2 jets, were mobilized for the exercises, the military said. “The exercise demonstrates the U.S.-South Korea alliance's commitment to integrated extended deterrence in response to North Korea's growing nuclear and missile threats,” the statement said. South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff in a statement. During the maneuvers, South Korean and Japanese aircraft escorted the U.S. strategic bomber to a designated location south of the Korean Peninsula, “demonstrating a strong capability to quickly and accurately strike targets,” the military added. . It is the fourth deployment this year of a strategic bomber over the Korean Peninsula, the military said, and the second as part of a trilateral air exercise aimed at countering military threats from Pyongyang.
The “most powerful missile in the world”
The B-1B is a long-range bomber capable of carrying conventional weapons and precision-guided weapons. Originally designed for nuclear capabilities, this bomber transitioned to an exclusively conventional combat role in the 1990s.
The latest ICBM launched from North Korea reportedly flew higher and further than any previous missiles, according to Pyongyang and the armed forces of Seoul and Tokyo, which tracked it in real time. North Korea's KCNA news agency called it “the world's most powerful strategic missile,” and leader Kim Jong Un “expressed great satisfaction” after the launch. North Korea has affirmed that it “will never change its course of strengthening its nuclear forces”, according to the official agency.
The shooting comes at a time when the international community is watching Pyongyang's possible deployment of thousands of troops to Russia to support Moscow's war efforts in Ukraine, raising fears that North Korean soldiers wearing Russian uniforms could soon be engaged in fights.
War in Ukraine: what can North Korea bring to Russia?
The sending of 10,000 to 12,000 North Korean soldiers to Russia raises questions. Without experience of high-intensity warfare, and not speaking the same language, their possible military added value in Ukraine remains to be demonstrated. On the other hand, this contingent would have much more to learn from the Russians. Decryption
For its part, Russia continues its search for geopolitical and strategic allies and has set its sights on Indonesia for the coming days.
Strategic shift for the archipelago
Indonesia is due to hold its first joint naval exercises with Russia this week, a sign that new President Prabowo Subianto wants a bigger role for Jakarta on the world stage, in an important strategic shift, analysts say. The Southeast Asian archipelago has long favored a neutral foreign policy, refusing to take a clear side in the war between Russia and Ukraine or to choose between China and the United States, two rival great powers.
But Prabowo Subianto called for stronger relations with Moscow despite Western pressure. “This is part of a broader vision to strengthen ties with all parties, regardless of their membership in a geopolitical bloc, as long as Indonesia benefits from it,” notes Pieter Pandie, researcher at the Center for Studies strategic and international (CSIS).
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Indonesia is a member, has already participated in joint military exercises with Russia in 2021, but Jakarta has never previously held maneuvers bilateral relations with Moscow. Jakarta has billions of dollars of trade ties with Russia, but its arms imports have stagnated in recent years, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), following Western sanctions imposed to Russia after the invasion of Crimea in 2014 and Ukraine in 2022.
Joint naval meeting and exercises
However, Prabowo Subianto kept a potential $1.1 billion deal for Russian fighter jets, concluded in 2018, on the table, despite the threat of US sanctions. Jakarta also refused to back down when the West pressured Indonesia to ban Russia from the G20 summit it hosted in 2022.
Prabowo Subianto traveled to Moscow in July to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, subsequently announcing joint naval exercises that signal that Moscow should be able to strengthen its influence over Indonesia. The five-day exercises will begin on Monday in eastern Java, where Russia will send three corvettes, a tanker, a military helicopter and a tugboat.
These exercises “reaffirm that we will not exclude one or two countries on the geopolitical scene,” according to Anton Aliabbas, professor at the Paramadina Higher School of Diplomacy.
“Great friend”
During his visit to the Kremlin, former general Prabowo, aged 73, told Vladimir Putin that he considered “Russia a great friend”, with whom he wanted to “continue to maintain and strengthen” relations. While Minister of Defense, he visited a dozen countries before his inauguration, including Australia and China, saying he wanted to build a “network of solid friendships”. He concluded a security agreement with Canberra and kicked off the process of Indonesia joining the BRICS group of emerging economies.
The new leader, sworn in on October 20, 2024, has already been tested when a Chinese coast guard vessel was pushed back three times from waters claimed by Indonesia last month in the South China Sea.
For Indonesia, hosting one of the most advanced navies in the world is a good opportunity. This will make it possible to “strengthen the capabilities” of the Indonesian navy and to discuss the maintenance of Russian equipment that it already possesses, according to Curie Maharani Savitri, an analysis from Binus University. Indonesia has Russian-made amphibious tanks, helicopters, missiles and fighter jets.
“Introduction phase” between the two countries
Jakarta and Moscow nevertheless have different maritime objectives, with Indonesia facing threats of smuggling and piracy in its waters, while Russia is looking for allies.
Pieter Pandie expects the exercises will not be as advanced as the “Super Garuda Shield” exercises that Indonesia holds every year with the United States and other allies. “I think this is an introductory phase to military relations between the two countries, particularly on the naval level,” he believes.
