Five days before the European elections, the National Rally list led by Jordan Bardella arrives at the top of voting intentions with 32%, according to the latest wave of our Toluna Harris Interactive survey with RTL, M6 and Challenges. In second position, with a difference of 17.5 points, the list of the presidential majority, carried by Valérie Hayer, reached 14.5% of voting intentions. It is closely followed by that of the Socialist Party and Place publique de Raphaël Glucksmann who collects 13.5% of voting intentions.
What dynamics should be translated from these surveys? How are they developed? Guest of Find out everything aboutJean-Daniel Lévy, deputy director of Harris Interactive France, specializing in political and opinion strategies, explains that the estimate of the participation rate is “of the order of 46 to 47%”.
“That is to say, roughly, 3 points less than what we measured in 2019 (during the previous election, editor’s note). These are data on which we are extremely attentive, even extremely cautious, because we know that everything can thaw in the last few days,” he analyzes.
Nearly a third of young people who say they intend to travel to vote would vote for the RN list
Jean-Daniel Lévy, deputy director of Harris Interactive France
“In this context, there may be a burst of mobilization,” he continues. In 2019, there were marches against the climate and an intervention by the President of the Republic which led to a burst of mobilization, particularly from young people. At the time, this translated a little more in favor of the list which was led by Yannick Jadot for the environmentalists,” recalls Jean-Daniel Lévy.
Currently, which list is able to mobilize young people? This is the list led by Jordan Bardella for the National Rally. “Nearly a third of young people who say they intend to travel to vote would vote for this list. Today, there is a very high probability that the youngest will not travel to go and vote in these European elections”, he explains.
According to him, this is not a new thing. “Since many years, the National Rally has often been quite attractive to younger generations and in particular young people who are insecure and who have difficulty planning for the future. This is a little less the case today where we see that even young people are fairly qualified,” indicates Jean-Daniel Lévy.
Today, the list of the presidential majority, led by Valérie Hayer, is facing a difficulty in mobilizing Emmanuel Macron’s electorate.
Jean-Daniel Lévy, deputy director of Harris Interactive France
And to continue: “If there is something new, it is rather the fact that this political party is today able to welcome voters who are aged 50 and over, or even 65 and over, and who until now encountered more difficulties than others in voting for the National Rally, particularly in the European elections.
Concerning the majority, Emmanuel Macron plans to speak on June 6 during an interview on TF1 and France 2, at 8 p.m.. Could this trigger a doping effect on Valérie Hayer’s list? “Today, this list is facing a difficulty in mobilizing the electorate of Emmanuel Macron, who voted for the president in the first round of the last presidential election. There is a significant abstention rate from this electoral core“, notes Jean-Daniel Lévy.
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