is there a new risk of heavy rain or even flooding in France?

The weather will change this Sunday with the arrival of a new disturbance. Will this situation persist next week? Should we fear new floods or even floods in France?

Florian Pasiecznik 05/26/2024 06:00 3 mins

The weather conditions are rather calm this weekend, this despite the weather already changing this Sunday. Does this change in weather conditions announce a heavily rainy situation for next week? Elements of response through this new article that we offer you.

Instability from Monday

For the start of the week, we will find a slightly more agitated situation in France. Indeed, high pressures will rather be in decline, favoring the passage of a little more instability. This could be presented in the form ofthunderstorms during the afternoon and evening of Monday.

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It is more particularly the southeast and the eastern facade which will be affected by a risk of stormy showers or even sometimes strong thunderstorms. Further north in France, the weather conditions are expected to be mixed with periods of showers.

On the eastern flank and in the southeast, rain and thunderstorms are possible on Monday.
On the eastern flank and in the southeast, rain and thunderstorms are possible on Monday.

This slightly disturbed weather over the northern half will persist on Tuesday with worsening bad weather by the evening and night from Tuesday to Wednesday. Indeed, a new, more active disturbance will reach us.

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The rest of the week could see new disturbances mainly in the northern half of France, due to the lack of an anticyclone close enough.

A sometimes “well” watered week

These new precipitations are under surveillance. Indeed, the last few weeks and months have been very humid. As the soils are waterlogged, the slightest heavy rain can quickly cause runoff.

In addition, all the water will quickly reach the watercourses, which causes a rise in their level. For next week, we will be able to observe these increases locally.

Locally, bad weather could bring heavy accumulations, maintaining soils that are already very humid or even saturated with water.
Locally, bad weather could bring heavy accumulations, maintaining soils that are already very humid or even saturated with water.

These should not be very significant since the rainy periods are not expected to be as intense and lasting as in recent times. To date it is difficult to know precisely the areas affected by the heaviest accumulations of rain.

These could climb up to 50mm or a little less than a month of rain. Of course, if stormy rains occur, such volumes of water can fall very quickly and cause isolated mudslides.

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The southwest quarter should be the least affected by this rain or even storms. So be careful these next few days since bad weather is likely to be locally severe. Our team will be sure to keep you informed of changes in forecasts over the coming days.

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