The Taiwan Strait shaken again. This Thursday morning, the People’s Republic of China began new military operations in the area, with the aim of inflicting, in its words, “severe punishment” on the Taiwanese government. In response, Taiwan “strongly condemned these exercises” and the island’s presidency affirmed that it “will defend the values of freedom and democracy”.
After a few months of calm, it was the inauguration speech of the new president of Taiwan Lai Ching-te, this Monday, which reignited the fire in the region. The Beijing regime interpreted this speech as a declaration of independence.
“All separatist forces in favor of the independence of Taiwan will end in blood,” went so far as to declare Wang Wenbin, a spokesperson for Chinese diplomacy. Although Taiwan has its own government, flag, and even its own judicial power, China considers it to be a secessionist province and wishes to “reunify” the national territory.
“A slight evolution” of the Taiwanese discourse
“There is a slight evolution in the official Taiwanese discourse,” recognizes Marc Julienne, director of the Asia Center of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). “When speaking about Taiwan on one side and China on the other, Lai Ching-te had a more decided speech than her predecessor. Tsai Ing-wen (the former president) had a more subtle position which consisted of remaining vague on the status of the two political entities on either side of the strait,” explains the researcher.
“But this is in no way a provocation or a turn by the Taiwanese president towards a declaration of independence,” he warns.
In reality, the Chinese reaction has more to do with the symbolism than the content of the Taiwanese president’s remarks. “It is traditional for China to discredit the legitimacy of a president in Taiwan,” says Jean François di Meglio, president of the Asia Center think tank. “These military exercises regularly occur in the run-up to elections or afterwards,” says Marc Julienne.
“Large-scale” maneuvers
As part of these maneuvers, which began at 7:45 a.m. local time, military planes and ships were deployed “in the Taiwan Strait, to the north, south and east of the island of Taiwan as well as in areas located around the islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin,” said a statement from the Chinese army.
“Kinmen and Matsu, which are located on the coast of mainland China, had remained away from this type of military exercise by Beijing in recent years,” underlines the IFRI researcher.
VideoTensions in Taiwan: the island surrounded by Chinese military exercises
According to Marc Julienne, this is an operation of a “large scale”, relatively “worrying”. “The last time there were such important exercises was in August 2022, after Nancy Pelosi’s visit,” he compares. Furious at the arrival of the Democratic President of the United States House of Representatives, the regime launched three days of military exercises.
Towards an armed conflict between China and Taiwan?
It remains to be seen whether these Chinese pressures should lead to fears of an invasion of Taiwan. “The risk is low, but the consequences would be immeasurable,” summarizes Marc Julienne.
Economically, such an armed conflict would have a major impact for both parties concerned, particularly China which operates largely on exports. But also for “Japan, Korea and all the powers which need to use the Taiwan Strait”, affirms Jean-François di Meglio.
Beyond the Pacific, Taiwan is the world’s leading producer of high-performance semiconductor chips. Shutting down its economy “would pose a problem in many international industries, from automobiles to artificial intelligence,” he warns.
The risk is also that of an international conflagration with “an intervention by the United States, a historic ally of Taiwan or even Korea, Japan or Australia” which have geostrategic interests in the region, worries Marc Julienne.
For now, the Chinese government announced the end of military operations this Friday.
