after the death of Yahya Sinouar, can we really speak of the “beginning of the end” of the conflict?

MIDDLE EAST – After months of being bogged down, the war in Gaza could have reached a decisive turning point on Thursday October 17. Considered the architect of the attacks of October 7, 2023, Hamas leader Yahya Sinouar was killed during an Israeli army operation in Rafah, in the south of the Gaza Strip. This 61-year-old man has led the Palestinian terrorist movement since 2017, before being named political leader of Hamas in early August following the death of Ismaïl Haniyeh.

“Yahya Sinouar is dead”immediately welcomed Benjamin Netanyahu in a video message in English broadcast overnight. “This does not mean the end of the war in Gaza, but the beginning of the end”underlined the Israeli Prime Minister.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron said that the death of Yahya Sinouar “(was) a turning point” and an opportunity to seize so that the war is “finally stopped”. Same story from American President Joe Biden or German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. “I notice a change in the speech of Benyamin Netanyahu who yesterday (…) announced (…) the beginning of the end” of the war in Gaza, greeted the head of French diplomacy Jean-Noël Barrot.

If the words of « fin » or from “beginning of the end” of the war in Gaza have been on the table a lot since Thursday evening, notably in the mouths of major leaders, some geopolitical analysts remain more measured, while Hamas affirms this Friday that “the martyrdom of our leader Yahya al-Sinouar (…) will only strengthen our movement and our resistance”.

At the head of Hamas, Mohammed Sinouar now expected

“The political-military structure of Hamas is in the process of disintegration, which does not mean that Hamas will disappear. You don’t make an ideology disappear by magic”comments thus to the HuffPost David Rigoulet-Roze, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) and editor-in-chief of the journal Strategic Orients.

Before Yahya Sinouar, other important heads of Hamas fell this summer. Head of the political office of the movement exiled in Iran, Ismaïl Haniyeh was killed in a strike in Tehran at the end of July. He was one of the most senior Hamas leaders over the past two decades. A few hours later, Hamas lost another of its big names, Mohammed Deif, the head of the armed wing of the terrorist movement, during a strike in the Gaza Strip. He was one of Israel’s most wanted men for nearly thirty years.

Mohammed Sinouar, the younger brother of Yahya Sinouar, “will (from now on) have inclinations to take back what remains of the structure of Hamas”but with “a risk of scattering, of chaos, of cells functioning autonomously”he adds. After joining the ranks of Hamas as a teenager, Mohammed Sinouar, aged around fifty, is the leader of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam brigades, the military branch of the terrorist organization.

Pierre Lellouche, former Secretary of State for European Affairs and specialist in the geopolitics of conflicts, sees quite a symbol in the death of Yahya Sinouar, whose last moments were filmed by a drone in a building in Gaza. “Even the conditions of his death, weapons in hand, are seen as proof that he was a true martyr (…) and I think he will be emulated, it is clear that Hamas does not is not finished »says the right-wing politician on Europe 1 this Friday, October 18.

“From a strategic point of view, Hamas does not want to end [dans ce conflit] with the conditions imposed by Israel, but for tactical reasons he may be more inclined to consider a pause that would help him regroup and be popular with the Palestinians.”anticipates for his part Alan Pino, former officer of the CIA and the National Intelligence Council for the Middle East, with the Middle East Eye.

The central question of Israeli hostages

Above all, the fate of the 97 Israeli hostages still captive in Gaza, 34 of whom are declared dead by the IDF, remains at the center of the issues in the Palestinian enclave, for Benjamin Netanyahu.

“The hostage issue is not resolved and it is a major problem for Netanyahu, because he made it one of the aims of the war. Until they are freed, for the Israelis, it is not over”recalls David Rigoulet-Roze. “And after the elimination of Sinouar, won’t there be acts of revenge? »asks the researcher.

David Rigoulet-Roze also emphasizes “a big question mark” on the management of hostages by Hamas. “It was believed, rightly or wrongly, that Yahya Sinouar was, for his safety in the tunnels, surrounded by a few key hostages as life insurance. Obviously, this was not always the case because he came out of the tunnels with probably two bodyguards and he was eliminated on the surface (Thursday), but there were no hostages around him. »

After Sinwar’s death, Israeli army chief of staff General Herzi Halevi said the war “wouldn’t stop” before the capture of all the perpetrators of October 7 and the return of “all the hostages” detained in Gaza. What Hamas responded to this Friday: the hostages “will not return…until the aggression against our people in Gaza ceases, there is a complete withdrawal from the territory and our heroic prisoners are released from the prisons of the occupation ».

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