What impact on Hamas?
“The martyrdom of our leader (…) and of all the leaders and symbols of the movement (…) will only strengthen our movement and our resistance”Khalil al-Hayya, a Hamas official based in Qatar, said on Friday.
But for analyst Andreas Krieg, Sinouar’s death is not just “symbolic”, she created “a void in the leadership of a very structured organization.”
His elimination comes a little more than two months after the assassination, attributed to Israel, of the former head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its role in the assassination.
According to geopolitical expert James Dorsey, Yahya Sinouar was “exceptional” because he “enjoyed broad support within the movement, both from the political wing and the military wing.”
Differences had already emerged in the past between the political leadership of Hamas, mainly in exile in Qatar, and the military and operational wings in Gaza, according to Andreas Krieg, lecturer at King’s College London.
In July, Israel said it had killed Gaza military leader Mohammed Deif, which Hamas has not confirmed.Different Hamas cells will continue to fight, but at the heart of the movement there is a vacuum, which will make coordination very difficult.”estimates M. Krieg.
Who to replace Sinouar?
After Ismail Haniye’s death, Yahya Sinouar was among other potential candidates for Hamas leadership, including moderates based outside of Gaza including Moussa Abou Marzouk, an advisor and negotiator, who was considered close to the former leader. .
Other exiled figures like Khalil al-Hayya, based in Qatar who has emerged as the movement’s main negotiator in truce talks, and Khaled Meshaal, the former Hamas leader also based in the emirate of Gulf, could be potential successors, according to Mr. Dorsey.
But the choice of Yahya Sinouar over members of the political wing in August was widely seen as a restructuring of the movement around armed struggle, centered on Gaza.
“The next leader will inevitably be someone at the operational level”predicts Andreas Krieg.
If the choice falls on a man on the ground, the younger brother of the slain leader, Mohammed Sinouar, appears to be a favorite. This one doesn’t have the charisma of his brother, but “he has a good reputation (…) as an activist and fighter”, said the analyst.
Can Hamas recover?
Hamas “cannot be eliminated”, declared this Friday Bassem Naïm, member of the political bureau of the movement, affirming that it was“a movement led by people seeking freedom and dignity.”
The death of its leader is certainly a “tactical and operational defeat”, but she “will not change the armed resistance against Israel inside Gaza”, abonde M. Krieg.
Hamas revealed itself “very resilient”affirms for his part Mr. Dorsey, recalling that its history is marked by “the assassinations of its leaders by Israel. Yahya Sinouar is added to this list.”
According to this Singapore-based researcher, the war triggered by the attack of October 7, 2023 could continue to strengthen the ranks of Hamas, but this would result as much from the despair reigning in Gaza as from the influence of Yahya Sinouar.
“It’s a generation that has lost all hope… especially in Gaza. When you no longer have hope, you have nothing and nowhere to go, you have nothing to lose.” Dorsey said.
