Change in trend, addition of context and analyst
London (awp/afp) – Oil prices fell on Friday, with investors believing in the prospect of “a path to peace” in the Middle East.
Around 3:30 p.m. GMT (5:30 p.m. CET), the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in December, lost 2.36%, to $72.69.
Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery in November, fell 2.49% to $68.91.
The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinouar opens the opportunity for “a path to peace” in the Middle East and a “better future in Gaza, without Hamas”, US President Joe Biden said on Friday , visiting Berlin.
The elimination on Thursday by Israel of Hamas leader Yahya Sinouar, whom Israel considers one of the masterminds of the attack of October 7, 2023, could in fact be used by Washington “to try to negotiate an end to the fighting”, estimates Ole Hvalbye, analyst at Seb.
The death of Yahya Sinouar “does not mean the end of the war in Gaza, but the beginning of the end,” Mr. Netanyahu warned on Thursday.
The mention of a ceasefire in the Middle East nevertheless reduces the risk premium linked to the possibility of a conflagration between the Jewish state and Tehran and a disruption in Iranian oil production.
Prices are also weighed down by the abundant supply of oil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a surplus in 2024 “due to production in non-OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries) countries and the slowdown in demand,” explains John Plassard, analyst at Mirabaud.
These bearish factors are barely mitigated by the faster-than-expected decline in US crude stocks last week, as well as Thursday’s cut in interest rates from the European Central Bank (ECB), which is boosting demand.
“The market is also comforted” by Chinese quarterly growth slightly above expectations, according to Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Energy.
This growth, however, remains the weakest in a year and a half, when the country was barely emerging from its “zero Covid” health policy which had paralyzed activity.
pml/ode/nth
