Christine Dugion-Clément is a researcher at the Risk Chair of the IAE Paris-Sorbonne, at the Artificial Intelligence Observatory of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, at the research center of the Saint Cyr Coëtquidan schools (CREC) and at the from the National Gendarmerie Officers School (CREOGN).
Volodymyr Zelensky is on a European tour to ensure the support of his allies. What are Ukraine’s needs today?
The support of Ukraine’s supporters in kyiv is crucial quite simply because they have a constant need in terms of military equipment, particularly ammunition, we are in an artillery war. And then because there are other demands to be able to carry out what we call deep strikes. Concerning the famous fighter planes, in particular, to know how many would be delivered and when.
And also to have missiles allowing them to strike inside Russian territory, in particular what we were able to see through ammunition depots, etc. And to go to work on Crimea. However, for this material, there is reluctance for several reasons. The first was the cobelligerence which is being agitated by President Putin, even if we see that until now, it has strictly not been triggered, even though he could have, if he followed his own logic, been able to do so. .
And the second concerns ITAR questions concerning France in particular, that is to say rules which prevent the export of military equipment if there are components from other countries, in particular American components, this which may be the case on certain hardware. So we are on this approach which is absolutely necessary so that Ukraine can continue to resist the Russian invasion.
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Ukraine: Volodymyr Zelensky says he wants to end the war in 2025
The Kiel Institute warns of a possible drop in aid to Ukraine in 2025. Why?
The main reason is that it is a conflict that takes place over time, that it has a cost and that many countries are starting to say that it is an effort that will be difficult to make over time. long. The second reason is the uncertainty surrounding the next American President, will it be Kamala Harris or Donald Trump who would return for another term?
Ms Harris said she would maintain support, but to what extent? In what way? And if we start with a second term of President Trump, he has always been quite clear on Ukraine. So we could have this extremely strong withdrawal, in what position would the allies then be? And above all, he has a position regarding NATO which is extremely harsh. He talks about withdrawal, sharing the burden, etc.
And there, Westerners say to themselves that they should perhaps rely a lot more on their own forces and not so much on the United States, on “NATO” systems. And from there, we might have to make choices. So we have all this kind of uncertainty, while knowing that President Trump has almost never had harsh words for President Putin, raising fears of at least sympathy.
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Ukraine: Volodymyr Zelensky presents his “victory plan” and rules out ceding territories
What do we know about Volodymyr Zelensky’s “victory plan” and what are his objectives?
He came to present his “victory plan” to different States. We are talking about a comprehensive and inclusive plan, the aim being to achieve an end to the war, but which would not be the end of the war, for example, which is the one advocated by Donald Trump who says he would put end of the war in 48 hours. This allowed Jens Stoltenberg, the former Secretary General of NATO, to say that we could indeed stop a war in such a short time, but certainly not achieve a just peace.
So we are in this approach, to already explain that we are not in a Ukraine which is systematically “going to war” and to the endist. This is in line with the positions that were taken in Switzerland this summer where we were ready to see negotiations. So with indeed strong demands which did not fit with what Russia wanted, a capitulation. Obviously, this is unacceptable for Ukraine.
But we are very clearly in this approach of being able to present, co-construct and at least be able to see what should be put in place to achieve this just peace and potentially a victory for Ukraine. While knowing that what is very much to be feared is that, if we ever achieve what can be taken by Russia as a victory, this will only encourage fairly aggressive geopolitical desires, whether kinetic or simply in a diplomatic or economic approach.
