New poll gives Republicans control of the Senate

According to a new survey New York Times–Siena College, control of the Senate is expected to shift from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party this fall: Senator Jon Tester, of Montana, is left behind by his Republican rival.

Mr. Tester, who entered the Senate in 2006, appeals to moderate and independent voters and is more popular than presidential candidate Kamala Harris. But that seems insufficient to survive in Montana, a conservative state where Donald Trump is in the lead with 17 percentage points and where control of the Senate is at stake.

Tim Sheehy, a wealthy Republican businessman and former member of the Navy SEAL (elite naval commando), has never held public office. He leads Mr. Tester 52% to 44%, according to the poll.

Faint hope

The Democratic majority in the Senate is 51-49. But since the Democrats are sure to lose a seat in West Virginia with the retirement of Joe Manchin (independent, but aligned with the Democrats), losing Montana would be fatal for them.

In fact, the party’s only hope is a 50-50 tie and M^me Harris at the White House; his running mate Tim Walz would have the deciding vote (the Constitution gives the vice president the deciding vote in the event of a tie).

At least seven other Democratic senators are in tight races, including in key presidential states (Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin). At the end of September, polls Times-Siena in four of those races and in Ohio put Democrats in the lead, but, for some, by very little.

The Democratic Party has few opportunities to wrest Republican seats to offset potential losses, as in Montana.

Their best chance may be in Texas, which Democrats have long dreamed of capturing. Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican seeking a third term, leads his Democratic opponent Colin Allred 48% to 44%, according to a poll Times-Siena.

Florida, solidly Republican

In Florida, incumbent Republican Rick Scott enjoys a comfortable lead (49%-40%) over Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

MM. Cruz and Scott have smaller leads in their respective states than Mr. Trump has in Mr.^me Harris.

Republicans appear to see an unexpected vulnerability in Nebraska, where Sen. Deb Fischer faces independent Dan Osborn. The Republican Party has recently come to its aid with advertising.

Speaking of advertising, Montana is awash in it: Its 1.1 million residents can watch $265 million worth of television ads just for the Senate election, according to AdImpact, an advertising tracking firm.

The Republicans are betting big on winning Montana from the Democrats, because this state has become solidly favorable to them at the national level. Mr. Trump obtained 57% of the vote there in 2020 and the recent poll predicts the same score for him.

Mr. Tester, with his crew-cut hair and seven fingers – as a child, he lost three fingers in a meat grinder – had deep enough roots to do better than his party and get re-elected in 2012 and 2018.

A national issue in Montana

This year, Republicans are framing the Senate race in Montana as a national referendum: Do you want a Democratic or Republican Senate? This strategy seems justified, since 55% of survey respondents say they prefer that the Republicans control the Senate. Only 37% say they prefer it to be the Democrats. Even independent voters say they prefer Republicans to control the Senate.

Mr. Tester has the support of just 6% of Republicans. He is trailing his Republican opponent Tim Sheehy, despite the fact that independent voters prefer him to Mr. Sheehy.

In Montana, 60% of voters have a negative perception of M^me Harris; they trust him less than Mr. Trump on all the subjects tested (economy, immigration, abortion, democracy and aid to the working class).

Republicans have directed a heavy fire of negative publicity against Mr. Tester and appear to have hit the mark: 47% of respondents view him favorably and 50% view him unfavorably.

The three new polls Times-Siena – Montana, Texas and Florida – are seeing a trend seen everywhere this year: Republican Senate candidates are lining up behind Trump.

In these three states, the gender gap benefits Republicans. There are more Republican men than Democratic women.

Interestingly, even though the state borders Canada, Montana voters cite immigration as their top issue (tied with the economy). However, immigration is clearly behind the economy for voters in Texas, which is on the northern border of Mexico, and Florida, separated from Cuba by only 145 kilometers.

This article was published in the New York Times.

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