What should we expect in the country of Lorient for the day of Wednesday October 9, 2024, when the Kirk Depression hits France? “Not much,” immediately deflates Stéven Tual, from the media Temps Breton. “Neither storm, nor much rain: there will be accumulations during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, 5 to 10 mm, perhaps a little more locally, but it should no longer rain at midday. On the wind side, we don’t expect more than 50 km/h. Compared to what we had planned, there is a world.”
A hurricane downgraded to a depression
Two explanations are necessary. First, the trajectory of the rainy axis has changed: initially centered on the British Isles, it should in fact pass much lower, at the level of Vendée and Deux-Sèvres, where accumulations of up to at 100mm.
Then, the phenomenon lost intensity. At its strongest, Kirk, which formed in the Atlantic, was classified as a category 4 hurricane. “The term brings back bad memories: storm Ciaran, which occurred almost a year ago of course, but also the one that hit Brittany in October 1987, very violent,” points out Stéven Tual. “Except that the hurricane then encountered the cold waters of the Azores and lost its qualification”, to become a depression.
“The storm will bring back good weather”
“Ultimately, more fear than harm,” finishes the meteorologist. “After Kirk, a northern sector corridor will certainly bring cooler temperatures, but also less precipitation. Finally, with a bit of irony, it is the storm that will bring back the good weather! »
Beyond these next few less humid days, it is difficult, for the moment, to plan for autumn. “The models are not very reliable. At this time of year, we are exposed to gales. But a phenomenon of the magnitude of Ciaran is once every ten years: it is not impossible that we will have one this year, it is not probable either.
A year consistent with the models
The results for the month of September may seem surprising: the average temperatures were certainly cool in Lorient (19.3°C, or 1.3°C below the norm), but it rained half as much as normal. seasonal (33 mm, compared to 66). Where does this impression of never-ending grayness come from?
“The explanation is almost sociological,” smiles Stéven Tual. “What characterizes this year 2024 is the absence of a long and beautiful period of a month, or even a month and a half of very good weather. In 2020, it was late spring and early summer. In 2021, the late season. In 2022, summer, which made us invoke all the superlatives. And last year, a completely crazy start to autumn: on October 8 in Lorient, it was 28°C, or 12°C higher than the norm.”
Episodes which systematically clashed with the usual Breton models, underlines the specialist. “They have changed our perception of the weather. In fact, this year, we find things that are not out of the norm. It just feels a little weird to us.”
