This new estimate further darkens that published in May by the Social Security Accounts Commission, which was already sounding the alarm.
The Social Security deficit will reach 18 billion in 2024, according to several sources having knowledge of the draft social security budget (PLFSS 2025). This new estimate further darkens that published in May by the Social Security Accounts Commission, which had already sounded the alarm by counting on a 2024 deficit of 16.6 billion, compared to 10.5 billion initially programmed in the budget adopted last year by Parliament.
Furthermore, for 2025, the government forecasts a deficit of 15.7 billion euros, according to a preliminary draft of the PLFSS published by the media Contexte, early Wednesday afternoon. In 2024, the slippage in the Social Security deficit is driven by that of the health sector, which would approach 14.6 billion this year, compared to 11.4 billion anticipated in the spring. For 2025, the government plans various savings measures to redress the situation, reaching 15 billion euros, according to the information that the executive has left filtered.
Among the measures in the pipeline, there is notably the postponement of the revaluation of pensions by six months, which would save 4 billion euros. The executive also plans to revise downward the exemptions from social security contributions enjoyed by companies, or to transfer a fraction of reimbursements for medical consultations to complementary health insurance. The government is also considering reducing the contribution of Health Insurance to the financing of sick leave. Companies would be called upon to take over directly, unless employees lose the benefit of the part of the compensation concerned, thus financing the measure themselves.
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The “inflationary shock” at the origin of the slippage?
Heard last week before the Senate, the director of Social Security, Pierre Pribile, explained the 2024 slippage in particular by “inflationary shock”who has “very heavily impacted the social accounts, (…) due in particular to a gap between the indexing dynamics” a large number of social benefits paid and “the spontaneous dynamic of revenues, rather dictated by the evolution of wages”. Faced with very high inflation, “it is normal that a certain number of salary increases have been decided in the public service” particularly hospital, including “we could not anticipate the scale” and the real effect on Health Insurance spending, he estimated.
Concerning the old age branch, the accounts are pulled down by the revaluation of pensions indexed to inflation in January 2024, and the increase in certain “small pensions” for a complete retirement, which has affected nearly 1.8 million people since September 2023, he recalled.
