Oil prices rose after US President Joe Biden indicated that “(…) we are discussing the possibility of Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities.” According to IRNA, the United States indirectly asked Iran not to attack military bases in the Middle East. According to Joe Biden, the US administration does not expect a military response from the IDF to the Iranian attack today.
- The Lebanese army confirmed the death of one soldier and the injury of another after a rescue mission during an Israeli attack today.
- Loud explosions were heard today in Beirut and Damascus; Iran criticized the G7 statement as “one-sided.”
- According to the IDF, Israeli warplanes struck Hezbollah targets in the intelligence headquarters in Beirut.
- FlyDubai flights to Iran, Iraq and Jordan will resume from October 4
- Ministers from Gulf Arab states and Iran discussed de-escalation scenario, concerns over oil installations in Doha
So far, there are no clear signals that the United States or Israel will strike Iran’s oil facilities. Such a scenario does not look good, neither for Israel (war), nor for the United States (rising oil prices). Such a scenario could result in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Iranian navy (21% of the world’s oil supply), which would harm Iran’s oil exports to China. Iran accounts for nearly 1.5% of global oil supply, but even marginal changes can influence the tight global oil market. According to Bloomberg projections for the start of 2024, an all-out war between Israel and Iran would result in a $64 increase in the price of a barrel of oil.
Source: xStation5
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