How Switzerland can beat Italy in the round of 16

Analyse

For the second time in a row, Switzerland could advance to the quarter-finals of a European Championship. To do this, however, the national team would have to beat Italy on Saturday evening (6 p.m.). Tactics expert Constantin Eckner reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the national team’s opponent.

When Switzerland meets Italy, the roles are actually clearly distributed. On the one hand, the small football country for which reaching the knockout phase is still a (small) success. On the other hand, the four-time world champion and two-time European champion. Italy should actually be the clear favorite – but ahead of the round of 16 of the European Championship, the signs are different. Not only because Italy missed the 2022 World Cup, as they did four years ago.

“Italy lacks a certain level of top-class play,” explains tactics expert Constantin Eckner from spielverlagerung.de to watson. Especially compared to the team that won the European Championship in 2021 and dismantled Switzerland 3-0 in the group stage, the squad has lost quality. Players like Lorenzo Insigne, who has not been considered for the national team since moving to Toronto, are missing. In addition, midfielder Jorginho, at 32, is no longer in the impressive form he was three years ago.

According to Eckner, the harmless performances in the preliminary round with three goals in three games by the Italians are also due to the fact that “Luciano Spalletti is not as adept at attacking football as Roberto Mancini was before him.” Mancini followed the call of Saudi Arabia in August last year, and shortly afterwards took over as Napoli’s championship coach. The team has not yet really found its feet under Spalletti, who is still tinkering with the basic structure. The 65-year-old is still switching between a three-man and four-man defense. In transition play, Italy had difficulty really breaking free at the European Championships, both against Spain’s possession and against Croatia’s long passing sequences.

Spain as an unimitable blueprint

Switzerland should also take this as an example, says Eckner: “Spain has provided the blueprint for how best to play against Italy.” However, the Furia Roja is a unique team and it is therefore difficult to model itself on the Iberians. Nevertheless, one thing is clear to the expert: “You should have a lot of possession in order to systematically push the Italians towards your own penalty area.” Then the Azzurri have problems, as has already been shown in previous games. Most of the ball wins fizzled out immediately because the counter-pressing could not be overcome.

“Italy lacks a little bit of power in attacking transitions,” says the German football commentator for Sport 1 and DAZN, among others, and therefore advises Switzerland: “If the national team’s midfielders close the space near the ball, the Italians may have a hard time escaping the Swiss grip.” This requires a fair amount of courage, Eckner knows, “but Murat Yakin usually has that.”

The expert sees good chances for Switzerland in a balanced game: “Italy certainly has the better first eleven on paper, but the national team is currently functioning better as a unit.” Dan Ndoye, Michel Aebischer and Granit Xhaka in particular are convincing Eckner at this tournament. In Italy, however, some players are not quite as good as they used to be. Neither Davide Frattesi nor Federico Chiesa are currently completely convincing, which makes the Italians’ problem of not being able to create enough depth in attack even greater. Furthermore, striker Gianluca Scamacca has not been a real threat so far, as he is “primarily a target player, but not a great finisher.”

The national team must especially watch out for Barella

Another thing that could work in Switzerland’s favor is that Riccardo Calafiori is suspended for the round of 16. The 22-year-old central defender was extremely important in the build-up: “With his short dribbling movements and forward passes, he is important for opening moves.” Eckner believes that Alessandro Bastoni will take over Calafiori’s role; he may not be as good a build-up player, but he is a competent one. Bastoni’s participation is still uncertain due to illness, but Gianluca Mancini will definitely move into the starting line-up, as coach Spalletti said on Friday.

Without Calafiori, Nicolo Barella has to be watched even more closely. “He is the only one in the Italian midfield with a significant degree of creativity,” says Eckner. While others primarily come through their running and positioning, “Barella, on the other hand, can initiate chances from scratch.” The national team must therefore keep a close eye on him. The tactician does not see it as necessary for Remo Freuler, for example, to be deployed as a classic guard who does not leave Barella behind. “But Barella must be put under pressure early after receiving the ball.”

Eckner breaks down the duel between the well-rehearsed Swiss team and the actually stronger Italian team as follows: “It is a beautiful competition between system and class.” From the Swiss perspective, it is to be hoped that the better team will prevail against the stronger individual players.