The Altares group observes that insolvencies increased by 17% in 2024 compared to 2023 and that they had increased by 36% in 2023 compared to 2022 while the increase in the fourth quarter of 2024 was limited to 10% compared to at the same period in 2023.
Business failures reached a historic threshold for the end of the year in the fourth quarter, according to the Altares group, totaling 67,830 procedures over the year, but they could have reached a ceiling. Thus, 18,709 procedures (safeguards, reorganizations and liquidations) were opened in the fourth quarter of 2024, an increase of 10% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, and an absolute record for the end of the year.
But Altares observes that insolvencies increased by 17% in 2024 compared to 2023, and that they had increased by 36% in 2023 compared to 2022. With an increase limited to 10% at the end of the year, “it appears likely that the last quarter of 2024 will have reached a ceiling,” observes the study.
SMEs and ETIs hard hit in 2024
However, the situation remains tense in companies with more than 50 employees with an increase in procedures of 30% (553 companies) in 2024. SMEs and mid-sized companies (ETI) in the manufacturing industry (+75%), wholesale trade (+76%) or transport (+59%) were very affected last year, and the number of jobs threatened by all the procedures reached 256,000, against 245,000 in 2023.
Companies less than three years old, however, are resisting: their failures increased by 8% over the year and by 5.5% over the last quarter compared to the same quarter of 2023. Buildings too (+3% of failures at the end of year), while retail trade is moving into the green thanks to food (-11% failures), optics (-22%) and pharmacies (-14%).
-“A high risk of a domino effect”
End-of-year insolvencies are also falling in Corsica (-16%), in Burgundy-Franche-Comté (-5%) and are stable in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur. On the other hand, they are increasing significantly in Normandy (+31%), Ile-de-France (+18%) and New Aquitaine (+17%).
“The context of budgetary uncertainty, combined with a gloomy economic situation, disturbs business visibility and invites a wait-and-see attitude,” observes the director of Altares studies, Thierry Millon.
According to him, this creates “deadly stagnation for the weakest structures financially or those which have not yet been able to turn the page on Covid” and the reimbursement of their PGE (loan guaranteed by the State). Thierry Millon warns of “a high risk of a domino effect” while the growth forecast this year by the government is only 0.9%. In total, according to him, “if we can envisage being on the verge of reaching a threshold of failures, we can also fear that it will be a plateau”.
