LThe beam is moving, but François Bayrou has not yet achieved his goals. At the end of the general policy declaration that he delivered on Tuesday, January 14, in the stormy Hemicycle of the National Assembly, the Prime Minister did not obtain assurance that the socialists would not vote for censure alongside from the rest of the left, Thursday. For a week, negotiations have been going well between the Socialist Party, the Greens, the Communists and the head of the centrist government who has been claiming since 2007 that it is desirable and possible to work together “Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Progressive Liberals”. The account is not there yet.
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In terms of form, the very constrained exercise of the general policy declaration took on a new and sometimes crazy dimension during this long afternoon when François Bayrou spoke for almost an hour and a half, then insisted on sending a detailed response to each speaker to better clarify what they believe in: the “recovery” and the “reconciliation”. But he did it by often getting lost in his files, confusing millions with billions, confusing his interlocutors who expected a precise answer from him. The character appeared as himself, both strong and fragile, determined and imprecise, authentic from start to finish.
Bringing civil society back into the game
Basically, he has been relentless with the debt bequeathed by practically all governments since 1981, intractable with the pension deficit, which, he says, pays for itself each year with increasing debt to the detriment of future generations. In his eyes, debt is a problem « moral » which must be vigorously treated. But at the same time he gave the green light to a « conclave » three-month renegotiation of pension reform “without any taboo” provided that the financial balance is respected, leaving the hand to the social partners to try to produce a text “socially more just”.
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The Socialist Party, which demanded a retirement freeze at age 64 before any renegotiation, remained unsatisfied. He did not find in the Prime Minister's other announcements − the start of proportional representation, the mitigation of the reduction in the number of job cuts in national education, the reassessment of the increase in health spending , the commitment to taxation of the highest assets − sufficient signs to seal at this stage a pact of non-censorship.
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In the short term, François Bayrou does not risk being overthrown, because the RN does not intend to add its votes to those of the left. But as long as the centrist has not sealed a formal agreement with the moderate left, he will remain in the very uncomfortable position of his predecessor. Much therefore depends on his ability to break with the verticality of macronism, to bring diversity to life, to bring civil society back into the game as he has hammered out his intention.
It's not all up to him. Among the socialists, the desire to break with the radicalism of LFI is progressing, because the situation of political blockage becomes more worrying every month. It weakens the country economically and diplomatically, in an increasingly threatening global context. A window opened for a minimum of movement to resume. The necessary actions must be found so that it does not close.
