It is the perfect Classic: teams close to maximums, title at stake and two open wounds, the Bernabéu duel y the precautionary measure to Dani Olmo and Pau Víctorabout which Madrid is silent and His fans and the rest of Spanish football are burning. Since that October 0-4, time and results have flowed in favor of Ancelotti’s team. That night they were six points behind Barça, which rose to nine with the postponement of the duel against Valencia a week later. Now Madrid are five up after a fantastic last runwith seven victories and one draw since the purifying defeat in San Mamés. With two titles in his backpack, he is already dreaming of septet. In that same period, Barça has lost three games at the Camp Nou, in a crisis more of results than of game (follow today’s match live on As.com).
In any case, at the center of the game is the figure of Dani Olmo, Barça’s star signing and innocent victim of a case that has raised Spanish football in arms. He already missed the first two league games due to his club’s inability to register him and has missed the last two for the same reason. Today it already has a file, but perhaps it doesn’t have a place. Dani Olmo has not played a full game since arriving at Barça, he has missed six due to injury and has not scored since November. Already at the Bernabéu he left with 25 minutes left and with the match semi-resolved (0-2) at that moment. AND Gavi, then still out, has already been a starter four times since his return and He scored the first goal against Athletic. It seems difficult for him to leave the eleven and almost impossible for Pedri and Casadó to do so. He has played all the Champions League games in full and has been in the starting eleven in the last ten of the League. So everything indicates that the morbidity will be postponed to the second half.
The other big Barça doubt is the goalkeeper. Szczesny made his debut in Barbastro and repeated against Athletic for a disciplinary punishment against Iñaki Peña. His last meeting before debuting with Barça had been on June 2, 2024, with Poland, in the Euro Cup. However, his performances at Barça have been convincing and the final decision is now in Flick’s hands.
Tchouameni works
In Madrid there is less to discuss. After four months of trial and error, Ancelotti seems to have found the ideal formula. The highly criticized Tchouameni presents an impeccable balance as a center back. The Italian coach put him there after San Mamés and the team has been undefeated since then. This has opened a gap for Camavinga in the double pivot with Valverde, a patrol that allows the magnificent four to be freed. In the last eight games the quartet has scored fifteen goals. Everything indicates that The eleven will be repeated against Mallorca once the recovery of Valverde and Bellingham has been confirmed. Modric, out due to flu in the semi-final, will also be available.
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This peak of performance in the white attack coincides with a low moment for Barça. Lewandowski, who at this point already has 25 goals, has three blank matches, and Raphinha, until December the best player in the championship, offers the same negative record. He made six shots against Athletic without success. The return of Lamine Yamal, the player who changes everything. With him, Barça has a 77% victory rate. Without it, 40%. The good performance of Pedri, who is no longer a crystal player, also helps. He has played all the games of the course without injury. The last ones, excellently.
Decreasing offsides
Mbappé also appears in that group of players on the rise, more by sensations than by numbers, which were never bad. For him more than for anyone, the game is a challenge. He has not yet had a great performance and was marked in the Clásico at the Bernabéu by those eight offsides. Those were other times for the Frenchman and also for Flick. Now there is no longer any room for the surprise effect and it is demonstrable in data: Betis took a point and scored two goals without incurring offside only once; Atlético only lost four times in their victory at the Camp Nou; Athletic, in five in the cup semifinal. In reality, that Classic was very distorted by the result. Based on the expected goals data, which is fine as a trend analysis but has no accounting effects, the match should have ended 1-2 or 2-3. That day Barça took the ball away (58% possession) from Madrid without a shot despite the fact that the white team stepped deeper into the area. The elevens regarding that match will vary little. Courtois, a substantial reinforcement, and Rodrygo, absent that day, will enter Madrid for Lunin and Militao. At Barça, only Fermín leaves the eleven to make room for Gavi and it remains to be seen if there is a change of goalkeeper.
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League records also reveal Barça’s superiority in possession of the ball. He also scores more goals, shoots more times, is more effective in the other’s area and recovers more balls. The breadbasket of the first games is what fills that superiority. Madrid is stronger defensively and in disputes.
The public will be divided and History is on the side of Madrid, which has won seven of the nine previous finals against Barçasix with the old double-match system, one with the quadrangular format. The rest factor, however, is Blaugrana. The change in dates due to the Valencia-Madrid dispute on January 3 has given him one more day of rest, that intangible that the technicians demand so much and that later does not have much reflection in the results.
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