And this time? Four reasons why Real will win the Supercopa

Real’s defense has noticeably stabilized

Offenses win games, defences win championships (or titles). It’s an old joke that keeps coming true. And there’s no doubt that Madrid’s defence was anything but at title level in the first phase of the season. But it’s precisely in this respect that the inglorious 0:4 Clásico defeat in the first half of the season and the 1:3 defeat against AC Milan in the Champions League a few days later seem to represent a turning point in this season. Since the defeat against the Italians, they have kept six clean sheets in twelve games and now have a goals conceded average of 1,0 in the league. If they manage to reduce this to below zero in the next few weeks, it would be another important step towards defending their title in the league.

Although slip-ups like the 3:3 against Rayo Vallecano or encounters with completely avoidable goals like the 4:2 over Sevilla do creep in now and again, the Blancos appear much more solid and allow significantly fewer big chances. Ancelotti has recently stressed repeatedly that they had identified “the problem” at the start of the season and now have a much better balance. However, Rüdiger and Co. do reveal weaknesses in the air or in box defense at times. Such mistakes should be avoided against Robert Lewandowski.

Ancelotti has found his system and his starting eleven

The fact that the defensive stability was achieved is of course also due to team reasons. After Ancelotti didn’t seem to know at the start of the season – just like at the start of last season – what his best possible eleven was and what tactical scheme he would use to send them out onto the pitch, this phase of finding out now also seems to be over. In the 4-2-3-1, Ancelotti can deploy the attacking line of Vinícius, Mbappé and Rodrygo, as well as position Bellingham centrally behind them, where the Englishman’s strengths come into their own. The double six with Fede Valverde plus either Eduardo Camavinga or Dani Ceballos also provides adequate cover in the centre and, depending on the opponent, the appropriate options for building up play. The balance that Ancelotti talked about so much has apparently finally been found.

And then there is the option of using Camavinga as left-back, to get both the Frenchman and the ball- and game-strong Ceballos on the field. A variant that actually seems quite likely against Barcelona and has been used by Ancelotti in the past in the Clásicos. Since Mendy has not been in the best form recently and Real’s all-rounder could be a good counterpart to Yamal anyway due to his profile, Ancelotti may actually tend in this direction.

Barcelona is weakening – as a team and institutionally

While things have turned around for the Royals over the course of the weeks following the bitter Clásico defeat, things have turned more or less the opposite for the Catalans. The “Blaugrana” have only won two of eight league games since then. In contrast, there are two draws and four defeats. The six-point lead over the Blancos has become five points behind in the last two months. And Hansi Flick’s team is currently not only in a results crisis after the exhilarating start to the season, there has also been a noticeable break in their playing style in recent months. On the one hand, the team seems to have had to pay tribute to Flick’s physically demanding game at times, but on the other hand, the opponents are increasingly managing to adapt better to the aggressive pressing and the high defensive line. The injury-related absence of Lamine Yamal (ankle injury) did the rest, and the Spanish European champions were also not unscathed by the heavy workload of the summer and at the start of the season.

But it’s not just the sporting side of things that has been going wrong in Barcelona in recent weeks – there are also serious institutional issues. The farce surrounding the registration of summer newcomers Dani Olmo and Pau Víctor caused a stir internationally and is dividing the league in particular. And it should be clear that such background noises do not leave a team unscathed. Raphinha, for example, caused a stir when he let it be known at the press conference before the Supercopa semi-final against Bilbao (2-0) that he felt the club was not currently presenting the best public image: “If I were at another club and saw the situation with Víctor and Olmo, I might think about moving to Barça.”

The offense is running hot and the Bellingham factor

Speaking of Bellingham: The Englishman has probably been the most consistent and best Madrid player since the start of the season, but there were still many critical voices in the first few months because his goal involvements were not at the same level as last season. But that has also changed drastically since the Clásico in October: Since then, the Englishman has scored nine goals and provided five assists in twelve games across all competitions, quite a few of which were decisive. The 21-year-old is benefiting noticeably from the system change and the more central position, which allows him to make far more deep runs into the penalty area than in the early months of the season, meaning he can once again exploit his goal threat more effectively.

But it’s not just the Englishman who has been on fire in recent weeks, the rest of the offense is also now up to operating temperature. Kylian Mbappé seems to have put his teething problems behind him and currently has a respectable 13 goals this season, Vinícius Júnior has the same number plus an impressive seven assists. Fellow countryman Rodrygo has also been getting better and better in recent weeks after recurring injury problems and in Brahim Díaz they also have a super joker in reserve who can decide a game from the bench at any time and has also delivered some outstanding games in recent weeks. Not the worst conditions to go into a Clásico or a final. And it certainly wouldn’t be the first time that Bellingham decides such a game with a (late) goal.