The key challenge facing France in 2025
The year just ended will go down as one of the worst in the history of the French Fifth Republic, both domestically and internationally.
Major political events of recent months highlight the enormity of the challenges France faces in 2025. Will the coming year see a worsening of the country’s institutional crisis or instead reveal an ability to adapt and avoid a disastrous predicament?
The past year ended with a political breakthrough — the announcement of Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s government formation on Dec. 14. However, in the days before this, disaster struck the Indian Ocean archipelago of Mayotte, a French overseas department, when Cyclone Chido caused dozens of deaths, at least 4,000 injuries and widespread damage. This natural disaster underscored the challenges France faced during this period.
Overall, 2024 oscillated between a succession of crises and two grand ceremonies: the Olympic Games and the reopening of Notre-Dame de Paris. These stood out as global events that highlighted France’s enduring soft power in terms of culture and tourism, as well as the triumph of political willpower. Yet, behind these two achievements, the overall picture is less than stellar.
Politically, European Parliament elections last June resulted in the rise of conservative populists and the far right at the expense of ruling parties in France and Germany, the two most powerful EU states. This surge of extremes was also seen in the radical left, embodied by Jean-Luc Melenchon’s France Unbowed.
In this context, the National Rally won the first round of the French legislative elections held the same month, but alliances and tactical voting by centrists and the left pushed it down to third place in the second round in July, resulting in a divided legislature and a fragile government that collapsed after a no-confidence motion on Dec. 4.
Over the past year, four different prime ministers have succeeded one another at Matignon, the official residence, a first since 1934. Furthermore, their governments mostly spent weeks managing “current affairs,” while leaving unresolved issues to fester and the country without a budget. However, President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly had the opposite of the desired effect. Instead of restoring balance and clarifying the political landscape, it created more divisions and fragmentation.
As a result, the task facing Bayrou’s government appears far from easy. It must prove its ability to endure, at least until June, the earliest opportunity for the president to dissolve parliament once again.
The year also brought continued setbacks in foreign policy.
On Dec. 31, Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara announced that French troops would withdraw from the country in January. This withdrawal follows the departure from Chad earlier in the year. After this redeployment and the forced departure from the Sahel, France now maintains only a symbolic presence in Africa, limited to Gabon and a contingent in Djibouti.
This eclipse of France’s military presence on the continent confirms the continuation of foreign policy setbacks over the past three years and the overall decline of French influence.
France, despite its political crisis, remained practically the center of the world with two global events during the past year: the Summer Olympics and the reopening of Notre-Dame cathedral in the fall.Khattar Abou Diab
The “French downgrading” in recent years is evident on multiple fronts. It has been exacerbated by the sidelining of the Gaullist republican tradition, which once established a degree of autonomy from the US and NATO. In fact, France’s return to NATO’s integrated command in 2009, military intervention in Libya in 2011 and its stance on the war in Ukraine since 2022 have highlighted its alignment with Washington, signaling the end of “French singularity” in Europe.
In Africa, Macron has pursued a contradictory foreign policy. After the hopes sparked by his Ouagadougou speech in 2017, when he announced his intention to reshape the image of “colonial France” and establish cooperation with Africans as equal partners, disappointments followed. These stemmed from a failure to break with the past, the continuation of an overbearing military presence and the lack of success in antiterrorism operations conducted since 2013. Furthermore, the mishandling of opposition to military coups in the Sahel finally brought an end to what was once known as France’s sphere of influence in Africa.
Certainly, poorly adapted policies and horizontal decision-making monopolized by the Elysee Palace were among the reasons for these setbacks. However, the impact of intense external competition on the continent, especially Russia’s growing presence, cannot be overlooked.
The Middle East was another stage that reflected France’s shrinking global role. During his first term and the first two years of his second term, Macron failed to make France’s voice heard. In Lebanon, a Francophone country that remains a priority for Paris, a series of initiatives led by Macron since 2020 proved unfruitful. Across the region, French diplomacy failed to achieve any significant breakthroughs against US dominance. Decisions regarding the Lebanese crisis as well as inconsistencies in handling the Gaza war weakened France’s position.
This decline in French influence is undoubtedly tied to shifts in global power dynamics. However, the deteriorating state of the country’s economy, as well as internal political tensions, have damaged its image abroad — a crisis that reverberates globally.
In the first days of 2025, the French political landscape appears muddled, with many questions unanswered.
The lack of clear direction and the risk of disorder weigh heavily on the functioning of institutions and the socioeconomic state of the country.
However, seen from another perspective, France, despite its political crisis, remained practically the center of the world with two global events during the past year: the Summer Olympics and the reopening of Notre-Dame cathedral in the fall. The organization of both occasions, the successful security management, the political willpower and the distinct artistic and cultural contributions highlighted France’s exceptional assets.
In a country that continues to captivate as a premier tourist and cultural destination, the challenge in 2025 lies in avoiding the trap of persistent political instability. On this point, both employers and union leaders have warned of the risk of an economic crisis with severe social consequences.
France thus faces major hurdles. Addressing these will require Macron to demonstrate greater flexibility and for political forces to prioritize the interests of France and its citizens over focusing on the next presidential election.
Khattar Abou Diab is a French-Lebanese political scientist specializing in Islam and the Middle East, and director of the “Conseil Geopolitique — Perspectives.” X: @abou_diab
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News’ point of view
