16-day weather: air mass limit with snow and storms?

Fri January 3, 2025 | 4:31 p.m
– Editorial team – Source: wetter.com

The weather models are still a long way from agreeing on the weather trend for the rest of January. A lot of snow is currently just as possible as a lot of rain and storms. But our weather expert has a “gut feeling”.

The weather in the next 16 days and beyond in January 2025 promises a varied mix of mild and cold phases, accompanied by sometimes intense rainfall. “The overall weather situation is determined by strong low pressure areas and changing air masses, which can bring both snow and rain,” explains wetter.com meteorologist Martin Puchegger

A closer look at the weather forecasts shows the challenges and opportunities for a wintry January this year.

Strong low pressure areas and cold air intrusions

Large parts of Northern and Eastern Europe are already under a blanket of snow, producing plenty of cold air. In contrast, southwestern Europe currently remains snow-free.

“These contrasts lead to a highly dynamic weather situation, as low pressure areas along the air mass boundaries cause stormy and changeable weather. Especially in Germany, the air mass boundary between polar cold air from the north and mild air from the southwest will be responsible for exciting weather phenomena,” says Puchegger.

Storm depression brings rough weather

A first strong storm will move to Scandinavia by Wednesday (January 8th), while it will cause unsettled weather in Germany. This low brings abundant precipitation, which can occur as both snow and rain.

The intensity of precipitation varies regionally, with air mass boundaries in particular causing slippery and changeable conditions.

Forecasts for the second week of January

From the second week of January onwards, the weather models show a clear divergence in their calculations:

1. European long-term model ECMWF:

• A strong high-pressure area dominates over Central Europe, causing the low-pressure areas to pass to the north. This leads to milder air, dry conditions and calmer weather. The cold remains limited to Eastern Europe.

2. American long-term model NOAA:

• NOAA’s model shows a completely different development, with a strong low pressure area over northern Europe and another over the Balkans. This constellation would direct cold air masses from the north towards Germany, accompanied by intense rainfall. Winter conditions with frost and snow could affect large parts of the country.

The whole of January: Mild or cold as winter?

The long-term assessment of the weather situation for January is controversial. The European model predicts that January will be too mild, while the American model predicts it will be significantly colder.

What is particularly exciting is the possibility that from the weekend of January 11th and 12th there will be a massive advance of cold air from the northeast, bringing frosty air to Germany. This would mean temperatures below freezing during the day, creating a wintry atmosphere. You can find out more about this in the video at the beginning of the article.

Summary of the next two weeks

• Until the weekend including January 6th: Changeable weather with a risk of slippery conditions, snow at higher altitudes and generally mild conditions.

• From January 7th: Increased activity of low pressure areas again, gradually bringing in colder air.

• From 11th/12th January: Possibility of a significant cold snap with frost and snow, depending on the exact development of the low pressure tracks.

Winter January: Yes or No?

The question of whether January will be cold overall in winter remains exciting. “My personal impression, based on the current data, is a 60 percent chance of a wintery cold January and 40 percent of a milder variant. The second half of January in particular could be characterized by continental cold air, which would mean a return to classic winter conditions “, summarizes weather expert Puchegger. “For everyone who is hoping for snow in the rest of winter 2024/2025, the development of the next few weeks remains crucial.”

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This text was created with the help of AI systems and checked by the editorial team.

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