Alexandre Pantoja Vs Kai Asakura
Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja by Submission +260 Decision
Alexander Pantroja takes on UFC newcomer Kai Asakura in a rare debut title fight. Pantoja is coming into this fight on a hot streak after winning over Steve Erceg. Though it hasn’t all been pretty, Pantoja struggled with the aggressive boxing Erceg hit him with, eventually taking the fight to the ground to claim victory. This could be an area that Pantoja struggles with against Asakura.
Known for his aggressive fighting style in RIZIN, he might be able to blitz Pantonja on his feet. However, Asakura is known to take as much damage as he dishes out, and with Pantoja’s precise fighting style, he could get himself into trouble.
Pantoja will likely control this fight on the ground or keep his distance with precision strikes. In our opinion, this fight will naturally end on the mat. With how dominant Pantoja’s grappling is, he’ll likely not let Asakura have any space to land a big hit. However, these are unknown waters for the UFC. You don’t often find yourself against such an unknown fighter as Asakura, and he could surprise us. We’re still sticking with the UFC vet, though; Pantoja will likely take this one and go the distance.
Shavkat Rakhmonov Vs. Ian Machado Garry
Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov by Submission +165
Someone’s undefeated record will end as Garry and Rakhmonov cash. The former training partners finally get to square off for the real thing. Both fighters have been elite in the UFC, but Rakhmonov is a different animal.
Rakhmonov has been brutal in the ground and pound, as well as in his submissions. He’s taken out some big names during this streak, too, guys like Stephen Thompson, Geoff Neal, and Neil Magney. It’s not just on the ground, though. Rakhmonov is one of the most accurate strikers in the weight class, landing strikes at a 61% rate. There is a reason Rakhmonov is feared in the UFC and favored in this bout.
Garry’s no chump, though. He’s been training around the world and picked up a variety of styles. He’s been able to take down Neal, Magny, and Michael Page, though he often claims victory through decision instead of in the octagon.
We think this one will end before the final bell, with Rakhmonov taking this fight.
Ciryl Gane Vs Alexander Volkov
Prediction: Alexander Volkov by Decision +440
Gane last competed in September 2023, defeating Serghei Spivac after being submitted by Jon Jones. Gane and Volkov have met once before in 2021, with Gane taking the unanimous decision win after out-landing Volkov on significant strikes 135 to 115. However, Volkov has evolved since then, showing improved striking efficiency and composure.
In the first fight, Volkov was very reliant on leg kicks, with nearly half his strikes being leg kicks. This time, he’s more likely to focus on straight punches, which were so effective against Pavlovich. Gane’s possible ring rust and Volkov’s recent form intrigue this rematch.
With this likely being a decision fight, betting on Volkov’s steady improvements may pay dividends in what could very well be a closely contested fight.
Bryce Mitchell Vs. Kron Gracie
Prediction: Bryce Mitchell by Submission +360
Bryce Mitchell has the edge over Kron Gracie in this one. Gracie hasn’t competed since his lackluster loss to Charles Jourdain, followed by another defeat to Cub Swanson. His lone UFC victory came via submission against Alex Caceres in his debut.
Mitchell is inconsistent, though, but more well-rounded. While he was knocked out in his last outing against Josh Emmett, he does have a win over Dan Ige and has only ever been submitted by elite competition such as Ilia Topuria. Mitchell’s athleticism and aggression give him a significant advantage over Gracie, whose passive approach cost him against Jourdain.
He might have the grappling edge, but Mitchell’s athleticism, fight IQ, and willingness to engage make him the favorite.
Nate Landwehr Vs. Choi Doo-ho
Prediction: Nate Landwehr by KO/TKO +240
Nate Landwehr comes in on the high of a comeback TKO win over Jammall Emmers. Since a rough debut loss to Herbert Burns, Landwehr has compiled a nice resume that includes wins over Darren Elkins, L’udovit Klein, and David Onama. He’s an aggressive fighter with a varied skill set, including a slick anaconda choke on Klein, making him a dangerous out.
Doo Ho Choi, “The Korean Super Boy,” is looking to build momentum after his July knockout of Bill Algeo, his first win since 2016. However, Choi’s post-2016 record is shaky, with losses to Cub Swanson, Jeremy Stephens, and Charles Jourdain, plus a draw with Kyle Nelson. While Choi is known for his striking power, his 47% takedown defense could be a vulnerability against Landwehr’s grappling.
This should be a fight full of fireworks, as the volume and pressure from Landwehr nearly two more significant strikes per minute than Choi should give him the edge.
