Michel Barnier censored? The rebels increasingly isolated on the left to build the future

POLICY – Dress up the next day. As expected, the government of Michel Barnier was overthrown this Wednesday, December 4 in the early evening, after the vote on a motion of censure tabled in reaction to 49.3 on the Social Security budget. The deputies of the National Rally joined their voices to those of the NFP to end the lease of the Savoyard in Matignon.

A last stand of unity for the New Popular Front? The question arises, as the alliance of left-wing parties, which claimed Matignon after its victory (by a narrow head) in the early legislative elections, is once again threatened by the specter of divisions. And for good reason: two lines are being asserted to build the new era which will open in the event of the departure of the Prime Minister.

Differences in strategic views, between socialists and rebels in particular, which tend to isolate the movement founded by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, still attached to the figure of Lucie Castets and intransigent on the original program of the New Popular Front. Elsewhere, the tone changes somewhat, with parties which seem to be reaching out, particularly at the center.

Negotiate a “ non-censorship » ?

The Socialist Party was the first to send signs outside the left. Ten days before the motion of censure, the president of the PS group in the National Assembly Boris Vallaud announced that he wanted to propose to the various parties represented at the Palais Bourbon (with the exception of the RN) “to raise the question of the conditions for non-censorship”if necessary, thus taking up an idea hammered out since the summer by his colleague Philippe Brun. “ We are ready for text-by-text compromises, we are ready to discuss budget policy priorities”assured Boris Vallaud in Political issues on France Inter and franceinfo.

A position repeated since by the various leaders of the Roses. This Wednesday, first secretary Olivier Faure again advocated on BFMTV the appointment of a Prime Minister who shares the values ​​of the left and who would renounce 49.3 “in exchange for a non-censorship agreement ».

In this context of political change, the socialists were joined by environmentalists and communists. Without saying it, the two parties support more or less the same logic, which aims to establish an agreement of “ non-censorship » with the presidential camp, around “ priorities » or « red lines ”, according to the different terms. Even if it means no longer posing the appointment of Lucie Castets to Matignon as a prerequisite for discussions. A major novelty when the main person concerned also says not to do one “ personal question. »

On the Green side, for example, the deputies announced this Wednesday, December 4, a “ base of eleven priority measures » which must serve as “starting point” for the formation of a left-wing government. They also announce in the columns of Monde that this government would undertake not to resort to article 49.3 of the Constitution and would seek to obtain the goodwill of the parties in the presidential camp and the Republicans so that they do not overthrow it. A line much closer to that of the PS than the rebels.

LFI pushes Castets to Matignon

Faced with this change in tone from the Socialist Party, the elected representatives of the radical left movement denounce, in the words of patriarch Jean-Luc Mélenchon, “ the organization of a new common base » with the Macronists, in place of the current NFP alliance.

However, for LFI leaders, two solutions are possible to emerge from the crisis after the censorship of Michel Barnier: the resignation of the President of the Republic and a subsequent early presidential election in which Jean-Luc Mélenchon sees himself competing. Or the appointment of Lucie Castets to Matignon, the candidate designated by the four parties last summer, to apply the program of the New Popular Front. And that's it.

Tuesday, the president of the rebellious group in the National Assembly Mathilde Panot explained, for example, at a press conference that a “a non-censorship agreement” would be “in fact, a form of government alliance with the Macronists. » « In the event that there is such an agreement, there would then be a break with the New Popular Front, and I dare to hope that no one will go that far.she argued, calling on her partners to join the position of her group : “An NFP government, with the NFP program. »

Here, no “ compromise “, as the socialists envisage in particular, but ” majorities text by text » in the Assembly, on the repeal of the pension reform for example. A fault line that could weaken the future of the alliance. This, on condition that Emmanuel Macron plans to turn his rudder to the left. Which is not really the most likely.

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