In recent days, the phones have started ringing again. If officially Emmanuel Macron continues to wish for “stability” from Michel Barnier's government, behind the scenes the head of state has already started looking for his successor. “He’s already on the next move,” confirms one of those who spoke with him recently. “He doesn’t want to replay this summer’s show. He wants to go quickly,” confirms another.
To his interlocutors, Emmanuel Macron evokes the risks of political instability for financial marketsfor France's credibility in the eyes of the European Union or even for the future of discussions on the free trade treaty with MERCOSUR which must be concluded by the end of the year. “How do you see it?”, the head of state usually asks his visitors. “Michel Barnier did the opposite of what needed to be done. Now you need a political maneuverer,” one of his close friends advised him, pleading for a personality capable of better relations with Marine Le Pen.
Lecornu, Bayrou, Lescure mentioned
In the game of predictions, as often, the name of the Minister of Defense, Sébastien Lecornu, is regularly cited. “Sébastien is very discreet, but he talks to everyone. Even LFI recognized his method during the military programming law,” pleads one of his friends. Last July, Liberation revealed that he had attended a dinner with Thierry Solère, shadow advisor to Emmanuel Macron… with Marine Le Pen.
Another name mentioned to succeed Michel Barnier in the event of censorship this week: that of the president of MoDem, François Bayrou. According to our information, the mayor of Pau was even received last week by Alexis Kohler, the influential secretary general of the Élysée. “He ticks a lot of boxes,” argues a right-wing elected official. To his credit, the one who sponsored Marine Le Pen during the last presidential election (in the name of pluralism), is also an ardent defender of proportional representation, one of the measures demanded by the RN. His opposition to the provisional execution of the ineligibility sentence required against Marine Le Pen last week was also noted. The Macronist deputy Roland Lescure, already cited this summer for Matignon, is also mentioned.
“There is no ideal solution”
“But these profiles all have the same fault: they are historical Marconists,” regrets a supporter of Emmanuel Macron… Then there is the option of appointing a Prime Minister again from the right. One of the Head of State's recent interlocutors mentions the current Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau, the President of the Senate Gérard Larcher, and even François Baroin. According to a visitor to the Élysée, the appointment of a more technical profile, such as the former European Commissioner Thierry Breton, does not seem favored by the Head of State. “There is no ideal solution,” summarizes a former minister. “The problem is not the name, but the method of government”notes a parliamentarian for his part.
There remains one option: rename Michel Barnier immediately afterwards if he were to be censored. In fact, nothing would stop it. But in front of one of Emmanuel Macron's relatives, he rejected this option. “The French would have the impression that we are sitting on the censorship of the Assembly,” reports this visitor to the Élysée.
Since Saudi Arabia, where he is received with great pomp by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the head of state does not miss any of the upheavals of his government. On his return, in the event of censorship, Michel Barnier will have to resign. The quest for his successor will then become even more concrete.
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