(AOF) – “The Paris Stock Exchange is gloomy. The economic statistics are bad, in particular the manufacturing and services sector PMIs. They have been well below 50 for months and anchored at extremely contraction levels strong which do not bode well for the French economy”, warns Pictet AM. Who continues: “There is obviously the weakness of China which directly penalizes luxury. Added to this is the political instability which is increasing and which is reflected in particular by a surge in France's borrowing costs.”
Since last week, points out Pictet AM, France has been borrowing at higher rates than Greece on debt maturities of up to ten years. Some commentators are even starting to speak of a “financial crisis”. Fortunately, we're not there yet. On the other hand, negative signals accumulate.
In this context, it would not be surprising if “the CAC 40 ended the year below the symbolic 7,000 points and therefore in negative territory while the S&P 500 posted an increase of more than 25% over one year”.
Like every start of the month, attention will focus on American employment, insists Pictet AM. “This is one of the last major statistics before the meeting of the American Federal Reserve (Fed) in December. It will perhaps allow the market to resolve a thorny question: will the Fed lower its rates by 25 basis points or take a break? The core PCE, released last week, and which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, reached 2.8% year-on-year in October – a high point since April. rather argues in favor of a break. But the die is not cast…Everything is still possible.”
France
