A budget adopted by ordinance. UNLIKELY
“If a motion of censure is passed on the Social Security financing law, the vote on the finance bill would be profoundly disrupted,” observe jurists Jean-Pierre Camby and Jean-Éric Schoettl, on the current website. legal.fr. With a first possible scenario: article 47 of the Constitution allows the government to promulgate its draft budget by ordinance, without a vote, if Parliament has not voted on it after seventy days.
This system, never used until now, however involves a lot of legal uncertainties, especially with a resigning government (which can only carry on with current affairs). It would inevitably be seen by many as a circumvention of Parliament. “The overthrown government could not have recourse to an order of article 47, because when a government falls, all the bills it carries also fall,” said Xavier Cabannes, professor of public law at Le Monde. Paris Cité University.
A new government for a new budget. QUASI IMPOSSIBLE
Second option to get out of the rut, a new budget, concocted by a new government. Given the blocked political situation, such an outcome before December 31 appears quite illusory.
An emergency law to renew the 2024 Budget. SIMPLER, BUT…
The government (resigned or newly established) will have one last card: submit a special bill authorizing it to collect existing taxes and distribute by decree the corresponding credits for the 2024 financial year. “This special law does not would index neither the tax scale nor the credits to inflation. It would therefore automatically reduce the deficit by around ten billion euros,” explain Jean-Pierre Camby and Jean-Éric Schoettl. But they emphasize that “we would however be far from the 60 billion initially hoped for by the government for the 2025 budget ».
The problem would be postponed until next year, but the catastrophe of a budgetary discontinuity avoided
Another side effect: the postponement of emergency measures contained in the PLF (notably in favor of farmers). “This would not exempt the vote of a 2025 finance law in due form during the year 2025. The problem would therefore be postponed until next year, but the catastrophe of a budgetary discontinuity avoided”, conclude -they. The LFI president of the Finance Committee, Éric Coquerel, and the vice-president of the RN, Sébastien Chenu, said they were ready to vote for such a law in the event of censorship by the Barnier government.
