For the research office of the Attijariwafa bank group, Marsa Maroc, with a market share of 40% and a presence in 24 terminals spread across the 10 largest ports in the Kingdom, is positioned as a central pillar of the national logistics strategy. This position is reinforced by large-scale port projects and the exceptional performance of the port of Tangier Med II, recognized as the leading port in Europe and Africa in terms of operational efficiency in 2023.
In 2024, the company reached a decisive milestone by beginning its internationalization through strategic agreements in Benin and Liberia. This strategy is based on two major levers:
1. Strong international partnerships : Like collaborations with maritime transport giants such as Lloyd’s table et CMA CGMrespectively 5th and 3rd shipowners in the world.
2. Exemplary financial robustness : The operator displays attractive profitability levels, with an EBITDA margin exceeding 52% and an operational cash flow (CFO) to turnover ratio of around 40% over the period 2024-2028, according to AGR.
Solid growth prospects
AGR projects average annual growth (CAGR) of +9.5% in Marsa Maroc’s consolidated revenues, reaching 7 billion dirhams by 2028. This progression would be fueled by:
– The growth of transshipment activitydriven by Tanger Med II and the planned launch of the first phase of the eastern terminal of the port of Nador West Med (NWM) in 2027.
– Optimization of operational costsstrengthening the operator’s profitability, with operating income before depreciation (EBE) increasing at a CAGR of +9.8%.
AGR expects that the profit capacity of Marsa Maroc will exceed the 1.7 billion dirhams in 2028, compared to 852.2 million dirhams in 2023. This performance should be reflected in the price/earnings ratio (P/E), which would go from 34.5x in 2024 to 22.9x in 2028.
An attractive valuation
Based on these forecasts, AGR sets a price target of 620 dirhamsoffering an upside potential of 15% in the medium term (18 months). The analysis also notes opportunities not integrated into this valuation, including: the second phase of Nador West Med; future strategic ports like Dakhla Atlantic; et lhe potential of internationalization, initiated in West Africa.
In this sense, AGR recommends buying the Marsa Maroc stock, which positions itself as a key lever of the national port strategy and a strong growth player on the African scene.
Source: AGR
