The president of the RN deputies in the National Assembly is received this Monday, November 25 in Matignon by the Prime Minister, who begins consultations with the heads of parliamentary groups to avoid the vote on a motion of censure by the oppositions.
“We are getting closer to the wall, so yes, we are honking louder and louder,” warns an RN deputy. While the threat of a motion of censure against Michel Barnier's government seems to be gaining ground in recent days, Michel Barnier will receive Marine Le Pen at Matignon this Monday, November 25.
The Prime Minister begins this Monday morning a series of interviews with all the presidents of parliamentary groups, including the opposition, on the budgetary texts which must be adopted by the end of the year.
At a possible 49.3, the left promises to respond with a motion of censure. Except that for this censorship to be voted on, the votes of RN deputies are essential. The far-right party can therefore save Michel Barnier… or precipitate his fall.
A majority of RN voters in favor of censorship
This week, Marine Le Pen warned the Prime Minister. “We will not accept that the purchasing power of the French is further reduced,” promised the head of the RN parliamentarians.
“I will tell him that the increase of 6 billion envisaged on the price of electricity is unacceptable for us, that the fact of not making savings on a certain number of parts of the functioning of the state is “It’s unacceptable, hitting businesses and retirees is unacceptable,” she also said on RTL.
A close advisor to the far-right MP explains to BFMTV that she is awaiting measures from Michel Barnier. “If you take Marine Le Pen's comments during the general policy declaration, the subjects on which she expected measures were purchasing power, security, immigration and proportional representation,” explains he.
How can Barnier convince the National Rally not to censor him?
“If the measures go in the right direction and correspond to the expectations of the French, the product continues to have its chance,” we say within the RN about the budget. Understand therefore that the party with the flame could claim victories among its voters to justify the fact of not censoring the government of Michel Barnier.
However, according to an Elabe poll for BFMTV published on Wednesday November 21, 51% of French people are in favor of voting for a motion of censure. A rate which rises to 63% when we only question people who voted for Marine Le Pen in the second round of the 2022 presidential election.
Michel Barnier “open to dialogue”
At the end of her interview with Michel Barnier, Marine Le Pen will weigh the pros and cons. “I am not sure that the decision will be made as soon as the Matignon meeting is released. The response will be given in a few weeks, especially since the text can be modified until the last moment,” underlines a close advisor.
The Prime Minister's entourage assures BFMTV that he is “serene and open to dialogue, as he has always said.” “The Prime Minister has been a good negotiator on many issues in his life. He knows how things work. He listened carefully to what Marine Le Pen said. Now we have to let things happen,” continues this source. , who reminds us that there are “still weeks of debate on the budget. We are only halfway there”.
But time is running out for Michel Barnier's government: the finance bill and the Social Security budget must be adopted by the end of the calendar year.
A vote on the entire Social Security budget is scheduled for Tuesday, November 26 in the Senate. And a joint commission between deputies and senators (CMP) should be met this Wednesday. A conclusive CMP would lead to a final vote in both chambers, with a probable 49.3 in the National Assembly.
The state budget arrives in session in the Senate this Monday, November 25 in the Senate, with a solemn vote scheduled for December 12, prelude to the meeting of a CMP, then a final vote in the Senate and the National Assembly.
On this text, Michel Barnier could therefore draw a 49.3 in the National Assembly in mid-December. The rebellious Jean-Luc Mélenchon predicted this calendar on Sunday, November 18, and affirmed on France 3 that “Michel Barnier's government will fall between December 15 and 21 of this year.”
The former candidate for the presidential election will have the appearance of a prophet if and only if his greatest political enemy, Marine Le Pen, asks the RN deputies to add their voices to those of the elected representatives of the New Popular Front.
Sophie Dupont, Loïc Besson and Ariel Guez
