Earthquake on the political scene and in Romanian society. The first results of the first round of the 2024 presidential elections were announced immediately after the polls closed at 21:00. Exit polls have been published. One is carried out by CURS, and the second by Avangarde and CIRA, while ARA Public is doing a sociological research. Both exit polls were presented by the news televisions, but also by Hotnews.
LIVE – Rezultate BEC:
01:50
After counting 87% of the votes, the ranking looks like this:
- Georgescu – 22.13% (1,812,120 votes)
- Ciolacu – 20.5% (1,681,156)
- Lasconi – 17.5% (1,436,573)
The difference is 230,000. There are still 1.27 million votes to be counted.
01:35
With 1.3 million votes left to be counted, the difference between Marcel Ciolacu and Elena Lasconi is 250,000.
After counting 86%, the ranking looks like this:
- Georgescu – 22.16 (1,835,247)
- Ciolacu – 20.4% (1,693,053)
- Lasconi – 17.76% (1,474,372)
There are still 1.26 million votes to be counted.
01:25
After counting 84% of the votes, the results are as follows:
- Georgescu – 22.1%,
- Ciolacu – 20.7%,
- Lasconi – 17.3%,
- Simion – 14.3%,
- Ciuca – 9.2%.
01:14
After counting 82.5% of the votes, the results are as follows:
- Georgescu – 22%,
- Ciolacu – 20.8%,
- Lasconi – 17.07%,
- Simion – 14.3%,
- Ciuca – 9.3%.
About 1.4 million votes remain to be counted. The difference, currently, between Marcel Ciolacu and Elena Lasconi is 300,000 votes.
01:00
After counting 82% of the votes, the results are as follows:
- Georgescu – 22%,
- Ciolacu – 21.02%,
- Lasconi – 16.8%,
- Simion – 14.54%,
- Ciuca – 9.3%.
About 1.7 million votes remain to be counted. The difference, currently, between Marcel Ciolacu and Elena Lasconi is 330,000 votes.
00:35
After counting 77% of the votes, the results are as follows:
- Georgescu – 21.9%,
- Ciolacu – 21.3%,
- Lasconi – 16.3%,
- Simion – 14.5%,
- Ciuca – 9.4%.
00:10
After counting 74% of the votes, the results are as follows:
- Georgescu – 21.9%,
- Ciolacu – 21.6%,
- Lasconi – 15.8%,
- Simion – 14.6%,
- Ciuca – 9.5%.
00:05
Bucharest (930,000 votes) and the diaspora (820,000 votes) are only counted very little. This is where the finalists will be decided. Because there are still 2.8 million votes to be counted, of which 1.7 million are in Bucharest and the diaspora. Here, in the direct Ciolacu-Lasconi competition, the USR candidate has, from the exit polls, an advantage. It remains to be seen if Elena Lasconi will be able to recover the 450,000 votes that Marcel Ciolacu currently has in addition. In this case, the current Georgescu – Ciolacu final would turn into a Georgescu – Lasconi one.
23:53
After counting 70% of the votes, Călin Georgescu is at the top of the ranking, ahead of Marcel Ciolacu.
The ranking is as follows:
- Georgescu – 22.05%,
- Ciolacu – 21.8%,
- Lasconi – 14.49%,
- Simion – 14.78%,
- Ciuca – 9.75%.
23:50
In almost 84% of the precincts counted, Călin Georgescu is in first place, with 22.06% of the votes. Marcel Ciolacu has 21.88% of the votes.
23:35
By 23:35, 80% of the precincts had been counted, which accumulates 63% of the votes. The ranking is:
- Ciolacu 22.17%
- Georgescu 22.11%
- Lasconi 14.97%
- Simion 14.94%
- Tassel 9.61%
23:05
After counting 50% of the votes, the ranking is: Ciolacu – 22.4%, Georgescu -22.1%, Simion -15.1%, Lasconi -14.3% and Ciucă – 9.7%.
22:50
After counting 43% of the votes, the ranking is: Ciolacu 22.7%, Georgescu 22.1%, Simion 15.3%, Lasconi 13.5% and Ciucă 9.8%.
22:40
After counting 37% of the votes, Marcel Ciolacu and Călin Georgescu are head to head. According to BEC data, the ranking is as follows: Ciolacu 22.9%, Georgescu 22%, Simion 15.3%, Lasconi 13.1% and Ciucă 9.8%.
22:20
After counting 23% of the votes, the ranking is: Ciolacu 23.3%, Georgescu 21.7%, Simion 15.5%, Lasconi 12.1% and Ciucă 9.9%. In particular, the votes in the small precincts are counted. In Bucharest, no votes were counted at all from Sectors 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6, and only 5 polling stations in Sector 3.
22:10
After 13% of the votes (cumulated in 25% of the wards), the ranking is: Ciolacu 23.5%, Georgescu 21.26%, Simion 15.72%, Lasconi 11.36% and Ciucă 10.22%. They are, in general, small sections, from also smaller localities, which can centralize more quickly. For example, secor 6 in Bucharest does not yet have any data uploaded.
22:05
CURS published the results of the exit poll with the final data for 21.00. The estimate does not include the diaspora vote.
- Marcel Ciolacu – 24.6%
- Elena Lasconi – 18.2%
- Călin Georgescu – 16.5%
- George Simion – 14%
- Nicolae Ciucă – 13%
- Mircea Geoană – 5.4%
- Kelemen Hunor – 4.5%
22:00
19.5% of polling stations were counted, more precisely 3,901 voting minutes out of a total of 20,059.
21:45
7% of the precincts were counted, but that does not mean 7% of the votes, but less. Because, in general, it ends up counting the small sections. After 1,300 sections out of a total of 20,000, the results look like this:
21:35
Voting in the Diaspora also slowed down. Between 20:00 and 21:30 Romanian time, only approximately 40,000 votes were registered, reaching 806,000. The big question that arises is where will the almost 850,000 from the diaspora who will register until the end go? HotNews will LIVE all night, vote counting, reactions and precinct events.
21:08
The counting will decide because the data does not include the votes from the diaspora, where the 800,000 votes mean about 8.4% of the total votes.
21:00
The big surprise is Călin Georgescu, the sovereignist independent, ranked immediately below Elena Lasconi and above George Simion, in these exit polls. If they remain the same in the following hours and are confirmed by the count, the final will be played on December 8 between Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) and Elena Lasconi (USR). Nicolae Ciucă and the PNL, which occupies the fifth position in both polls, recorded a defeat on these dates.
Results EXIT-POLL Avangarde – CIRA, with data collected until 19.00:
- Marcel Ciolacu – 25%
- Elena Lasconi – 18%
- Călin Georgescu – 16%
- George Simion – 15%
- Nicolae Ciucă – 14%
- Mircea Geoana – 5%
EXIT-POLL COURSE results, with data collected until 20.00:
- Marcel Ciolacu – 25%
- Elena Lasconi – 18.1%
- Călin Georgescu – 16%
- George Simion – 14.1%
- Nicolae Ciucă – 13%
- Mircea Geoană – 5.5%
18:00
source Vanguardsone of the institutes that conducts an EXIT POLL for the 2024 presidential elections round 1, declared for HotNews that “tonight we may register a very big surprise at least for one of the two candidates who will qualify for the second round of the presidential elections” .
Who owns Avangarde and CIRA
The Socio-Behavioral Studies Group Avangarde SRL is 100% owned by the sociologist Marius Pieleanu.
Presshub writes that, according to termene.ro, the CIRA company has the same headquarters as Grupul de Studii Socio Comportamentale Avangarde SRL, the polling company of Marius Pieleanu. The company is owned by Vladimir Ionaș for 80% and Marius Pieleanu for 20%.
“CIRA does not say anywhere who represents the company, but from the Trade Register we can learn that although it has only one employee, its turnover has exploded to over 2 million lei in 2023. And, obviously, that employee does national surveys. It's just a coincidence that the address and phone number (landline) are identical to those of the more famous Avangarde (really, does anyone know where Mr. Pieleanu is after the scandal of harassing female students?). Another coincidence is that the contact email address and mobile phone number belong to mr. Vladimir Ionaș, from the same company Avangarde”, wrote the director of the Center for Public Innovation, Ovidiu Voicu, on his Facebook account, quoted by Presshub.
Who owns COURSE
CURS is owned by former Antena 3 journalist Iosif Buble. The institute has given the results of many of the polls of the last 25 years, writes the publication Europa Liberă, which also provides some moments when the estimated figures were far from the subsequent results. Buble is also the owner of the website stiripesurse.ro which had advertising contracts with several politicians, parties or state institutions and companies.
Buble's wife is former MP Diana Tușa, initially PNL, and later PSD. According to the wealth declaration that his wife submitted in June 2023, Iosif Buble collected dividends of approximately 4 million euros (18,819,754 lei) from the six companies in which he has shares.
ARA Public Opinion SRL is doing a sociological research
In addition to the two polls, ARA Public Opinion SRL was accredited by the Central Electoral Bureau to conduct a sociological survey for Antena3.
The polling firm ARA Public Opinion SRL was founded in November 2021, according to data available on termene.ro. The shareholder is Laurentiu Andrei Vasile (85%) and the company Lincoln Strategy Group LCC (15%), based in the United States.
Laurentiu Andrei Vasile was the son-in-law of the founder of the Intact trust, Dan Voiculescu, according to a G4Media article published in April 2024. He was married to Voiculescu's youngest daughter, Corina, but they divorced a few years ago. They have three children together, according to the same source.
Incidentally, Laurențiu Andrei Vasile also appears as an administrator at the company “Antena 3 SA”, owned by Dan Voiculescu's daughters (36%, respectively 30%), by the Dan Voiculescu Foundation for the Development of Romania (13%), by the moderator Mihai Gâdea ( 10%) and by another company, “Antena Holding SA” (10%), according to information from termene.ro, consulted by HotNews.ro.
