Constitution against “shutdown”
The question of a “shutdown”, an American-style administrative paralysis, has come back in recent years in the absence of an absolute majority. But for constitutionalist Anne-Charlène Bezzina, this “will probably not happen”, because “we have a resilient Constitution”. The Constitution provides, for example, that if Parliament has not “decided” within certain deadlines on the budget, the government can resort to ordinances. Deadlines set this year respectively at December 5 and December 21, according to an Assembly document.
This new avenue would, however, be accompanied by legal questions, such as whether the vote of censure means that Parliament in the broad sense has “spoken”, which could hamper the orders. “In my opinion, we are moving more towards the special law allowing taxes to be levied,” believes Anne-Charlène Bezzina.
The government can ask the Assembly to vote before December 11 on only the “revenues” of the budget, or table a special law before December 19 to collect taxes. Before incurring expenses strictly necessary to run the State. France had precedents in 1963 and 1980.
Whatever the path, a question would arise: can a censorious government, supposed to handle current affairs, operate the budgetary machine? A note from the general secretariat of the government cautiously goes in this direction. “There is the legal and the political,” notes constitutionalist Benjamin Morel. “An unpopular president who has to deal with the passage by orders of a rejected budget, with potentially a government resigning, it's complicated. »
Matignon: who and why?
In the event of censorship, eyes would instantly turn to Emmanuel Macron. To replace Michel Barnier, he could choose… Michel Barnier. Like Georges Pompidou, reappointed after censorship in 1962. But President de Gaulle had the dissolution in his hands to find a more favorable composition in the Assembly. Emmanuel Macron should wait for him next summer. “It’s not the problem “Barnier”, it’s what argument do you give to the RN or the socialists so that they can not censor? », underlines Benjamin Morel.
For the moment, the same names are circulating for possible replacements. Like Xavier Bertrand, president of Hauts-de-France, from LR like Michel Barnier. “But in good parliamentary logic you have every interest in changing the political position,” considers Anne-Charlène Bezzina. The name of former socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, contested within the left, also comes up.
Budget: motion of censure, the growing danger
The prospect of a motion of censure capable of overthrowing the Prime Minister and his government is growing. In the RN, as on the left, we no longer fear the consequences of such a big bang
“That would imply that LR does not censor and that the socialists take the risk” of a confrontation with LFI a few months before a possible dissolution, points out Benjamin Morel, imagining more of a “depoliticizing technical government”. The NFP candidate Lucie Castets is always mentioned, but is not unanimous internally, particularly at the PS. “Today, it is the “what to do” that must be decisive,” summarizes an environmentalist executive.
The eye of the markets
Paris, already under pressure from financial rating agencies, would have a lot to do to reassure investors and not see its borrowing rates soar. The French market declined sharply between the dissolution and the legislative elections, but its losses have not deepened further since, compared to other European financial centers. “On the other hand, France has not made up for the delay accumulated in June,” analyzes Guillaume Laconi, European equity manager at Edmond de Rothschild AM.
“If the Barnier government falls, there will be no dissolution before June and the markets will return to a period of uncertainty. The positive side would be to say that with six months of blockage, nothing will happen from a market point of view, neither good nor bad. But given the difficulties of public finances in France, it is difficult to see the glass half full,” he judges.
Can the political blockage turn into an institutional crisis? “The problem is that we haven't moved an inch on the question of the majority. We have still not created a parliamentary surprise,” notes Anne-Charlène Bezzina.
