Restructuring within the polar vortex is leading the way for winter

EA few fields of rain will move across Germany in the coming days and will make the weather unstable and windy at times. Stormy gusts of wind may occur over the coasts and exposed locations on Sunday and Thursday. Precipitation activity will be light to moderate and may become significant on Thursday. Temperatures will rise to +12 to +16 degrees on Monday and can reach +18 degrees over the southwest – in some places the values ​​can approach the +20 degree mark. From Tuesday it will be cooler again and the values ​​will drop into the more moderate range at +5 to +10 degrees by Thursday.

December starts with high pressure weather or a disturbance

The development of a high pressure zone is almost certain at the beginning of December. It remains questionable whether a disturbance can mix with the high and thus cause more clouds and light precipitation – but even without the disturbance, an interplay of sun, fog and thick high fog fields would be expected at the beginning of December. The main difference is in the temperature range – +4 to +8 degrees are possible with a disturbance pulse and from +10 to +14 degrees without. If you want to know more precisely – December weather.

Weather forecast from the forecast models: Is the westerly weather coming?

Zonalization – which we have been observing and evaluating here for several days now – appears again and again in the calculations of the forecast models. Today, however, the difference is that the high can form between Alaska and Siberia. This is an essential and important signal for the coming weather developments until mid-December.

Both the Americans and the Europeans are now supporting a variant in which the zonal underlying current on the Atlantic can regenerate, prevail and also stabilize as far as Central Europe. Over Germany, Switzerland and Austria, this would result in a stringent westerly weather situation with a lot of wind, rain and temperatures that are significantly too high for the time of year until December 6th (St. Nicholas).

Warm air from southwesterly directions

As the weather progresses, the westerly weather situation often shifts to a southwesterly direction and pushes warm air masses over Spain and France to Germany. In this case, the north and west of Germany remain maritime, while the sun can appear more often over the south and east. However, the temperatures reach unusually high values ​​of +8 to +14 degrees – if there is fog, it stays fresher at +5 to +8 degrees.

In summary, the forecasts of both forecast models are up to December 6th anything but wintery. However, one can clearly see the pattern of stabilizing zonalization.

Weather forecast according to the American weather model: No winter weather possible

Once the zoning is set in motion, it takes effect over a period of 7 to 14 days and sometimes up to 21 days. The Americans’ forecast also confirms a tipping pattern of the frontal zone towards the southwest, which will further increase the temperature spectrum over Central Europe.

Altitude temperatures of +10 degrees

Such values ​​are extremely unusual at an altitude of 1,400 meters, but are calculated to be at their maximum by December 7, according to the American forecast. The temperatures are therefore 18 degrees away from the lowland winter, which should normally gradually creep in across southern Germany at the beginning of the second decade of December. So yes, that, What the Americans are calculating is anything but wintry.

But not only that – the precipitation activity is also set to almost zero, and dry weather would therefore be expected across the board. A Worst case scenario for all Friends of winter weather.

In a nutshell: Is the weather trending significantly to extremely warm?

The forecasts of the prediction models give the Friends of the winter weather little reason for hope. What remains to be noted is that the forecast models have tended to be more volatile in the past few days Hop or top principle is by no means off the table. What is crucial is whether the high pressure axis between Alaska and eastern Siberia comes into being or can tip in another direction.

What weather is likely

A second interesting point is the prediction of the mean of all control runs. In recent days, the average control run supported the zonation, but remained open to a northwest or northerly weather situation. Nothing has changed today. In other words, the model forecasts have moved closer to the mean value of the control runs.

The temperature forecast for the control runs calculates altitude temperatures of -2 to -4 degrees until December 10th. For a lowland winter -6 to -8 degrees are necessary, while for winter from middle altitudes -4 to -6 degrees would be sufficient. The same thing – the control runs confirm a wet and cold weather trend after December 4thin which winter can become possible from the higher middle altitudes. Let’s take a look.

Next update

• 8:15 p.m: Update of the winter forecast here