Vladimir Putin has reason to be cautious towards the new tenant of the White House. “Moscow awaits the first steps of the new American team with no less anxiety than in kyiv“, estimates Russian journalist and researcher Alexander Baunov, in an analytical paper written for the Carnegie Endowment think tank.
Will Donald Trump resolve the war in Ukraine, as he claimed? “His relationship with Vladimir Putin is quite surprising”
Inconsistency
Firstly because such a victory undermines the thesis on which the Kremlin’s propaganda is based, according to which there is no difference between democracies and autocracies, and that the Western political order is managed by businessmen. So, if Vladimir Putin gets closer to Donald Trump, he is showing inconsistency with his speech. But according to Alexander Baunov, “constancy is not [de toute façon] not a necessary feature of Russian politics“.
It is at the level of foreign policy that this gets stuck. Russia has for years tried to present itself as a selfless leader and defender of the “world majority.” This attracts the sympathy of the countries of the South, as we saw in particular during the Brics summit. If Vladimir Putin nevertheless gets closer to Donald Trump, “the joy and benefits she will get from it […] can only highlight the difference between the objectives and interests of the Global South and the Russian elite“.
Furthermore, the new American president will try “certainly weaken the increasingly close alliance between Russia and the Chine. Even if Moscow will ostentatiously resist it, it will not be easy for it to refuse to weaken its unilateral and asymmetrical dependence“.
In Ukraine, uncertainty prevails following Trump’s victory: “The armistice will arrive but before that we will witness fierce fighting”
Donald Trump wants “peace” at all costs
But Donald Trump’s victory poses a problem.much more serious“for Vladimir Putin: the American really wants to end the war in Ukraine. To prove his effectiveness, he”might want to force the parties to cease hostilities and conclude a truce, or at least freeze the conflict“However, according to Alexander Baunov, the Russian president no longer wants to receive concrete proposals from the West for a ceasefire, even if they contain concessions from Ukraine.
gullVladimir Putin will no longer be able to continue his slow war of attrition as if nothing had happened
“Vladimir Putin does not want a peaceful solution – fair or not – for todayexplains the researcher. For now, the Russian leader can continue his war of attrition by citing Zelensky’s refusal to begin peace talks and the absence of concrete proposals from Washington. He is confident that he can go further, and that confidence has brought him back to the original goal of the invasion – the takeover of all of Ukraine, with part of the territory annexed directly by Russia and a another transformed into a satellite state, a sort of second Belarus.“
Except that the new American president will be ready to do anything to achieve his objective: on the one hand, “authorize the Ukrainian military to strike targets deep in Russia with long-range weapons“and on the other hand, blackmail regarding the reduction of aid to kyiv.”If Donald Trump manages to propose the terms of a ceasefire agreed with kyiv and the European allies, Vladimir Putin will no longer be able to continue his slow war of attrition as if nothing had happened. [Et] in the event of rejection of the proposal, Donald Trump is entirely capable of moving to plan B, which involves unexplored horizons of escalation.“Which means, in any case, the end of Russia’s “victory plan” in Ukraine.
