The cliché about “two irreconcilable Americas” was sufficiently undermined during the presidential campaign so that we do not dwell on this obvious fact. Yes, the economic policy of the United States will be shaken up by the arrival of Republican Donald Trump at the White House, replacing Democrat Joe Biden. There remains a less easy question: is this good or bad news for the French economy?
Obviously, with Donald Trump, “it is never easy to plan ahead,” immediately specifies Sylvain Bersinger, economist at the Asteres firm. There is a gap between what he says he is going to do and what he actually does. » One of the flagship measures of the billionaire's program on foreign trade would be the return of a customs duty for European products. During his first term in 2016, Donald Trump had already taxed steel and aluminum. This time, in the name of its protectionist philosophy, all products would be taxed, between 10 and 20%.
Bonus political divisions
“This would obviously be bad news for Europe and for France,” said Sylvain Bersinger. Although they are not the leading trading partners, well ahead of Germany, the United States remains a major customer.” The fourth to be precise, with 45 billion exports in 2023. Obviously, Europe could respond with similar measures, notably pushed by Germany. The latter exports 150 billion euros of products to the United States, and has a positive trade balance (exports – imports) of 50 billion with the US. “This is not the case for France, which imports more than it exports, and which therefore has divergent interests with Germany. This risks creating political divisions,” estimates Stéphanie Villers, senior economist at PwC.
But the measure is not completely acquired either from an American point of view. If an increase in customs is bad news for Europe, “it would also be bad news for the American consumer,” recalls the expert. As big an exporter as the country is, it also imports a lot of products. Consequence: “an increase in prices would be expected. However, the Democratic Party was shunned by the Americans because they considered Joe Biden responsible for inflation. Donald Trump is perhaps not going to take this risk. »
Tense international situation
No need for catastrophism, then. There is also good news in the Trumpist election. Sylvain Bersinger: “He has planned a very spending budget which should lead to more consumption and exports, which is good news for us.” But be careful in the longer term. Absolutely wanting to boost his economy, Donald Trump plans to lower interest rates, “which could create a speculative bubble likely to explode, like during the subprime mortgages in 2007 and 2008.”
Beyond taxes and interest rates, what should we think of Donald Trump's international policy?
What if Trump pushed Europe in the right direction of history
If a major change in dynamics in the war in Ukraine would not have a direct impact on France, which has already cut almost all economic ties with Russia, what about China, to which Donald Trump had been very hostile (economically) during his first mandate by increasing protectionist measures? On this issue, Stéphanie Villers even makes the American president an ally: “Europe also has a dispute with China, and the Twenty-Seven are already moving forward on increases in customs duties on Chinese imports. » For the specialist, Donald Trump appears on this side “less as a threat than an accelerator of a policy of European retaliation in line with American and Chinese protectionism. We know which way the USA is going: deglobalization and a return to more local production, pushing us to do the same.”
Will the Trumpist mandate be the perfect opportunity for Europe to emancipate itself and develop its independence? Philippe Crevel is less optimistic: “Without American military aid, and with a strong Russia, European states will have to increase their own military spending, with increasingly constrained national budgets. » As for the return of protectionism, “in history, it is never good news. Always synonymous with a decline in growth, an exacerbation of tensions between countries, and the start of a vicious circle. »
