(Paris) The arrival at the White House of Donald Trump and his very protectionist program represents a threat to a world economy already shaken by several crises in recent years, with increased risks for world trade, inflation and growth , according to experts.
Posted at 7:35 a.m.
Ali BEKHTAOUI
Agence France-Presse
World trade threatened?
The American billionaire’s first term between 2017 and 2021 had already borne the mark of punitive customs duties. During the election campaign, he promised import taxes of notably 60% on Chinese products, and increases of 10% for the rest of the world.
Added to likely retaliatory measures from Beijing and the EU, this would cost the European Union economy $533 billion by 2029, $749 billion for the United States and $827 billion for China, assessed the international consultancy Roland Berger in a study.
On the other hand, emerging countries such as India, Indonesia and Brazil “would be much less affected”, according to a study by the London School of Economics (LSE).
Beyond customs duties, it is the very future of international cooperation that is worrying: “the world of multilateralism of the 1990s-2000s will no longer exist,” Tara Varma, guest researcher, told AFP. at the American think tank Brookings Institution, which anticipates “immense violence” from the initiatives of the 47e American president.
Towards an inflationary shock?
Donald Trump’s policy risks resulting in a new outbreak of inflation, estimated for example at an additional 2% of inflation for China in an optimistic scenario and more than 4% in a negative scenario by the American think tank Peterson Institute ( PIIE).
“The question of immigration is as important as that of international trade” on inflation, Gilles Moec, chief economist of the European insurance giant Axa, told AFP, at a time when the Republican plans to massively expel undocumented immigrants in a country already affected by labor shortages.
The Pew Research Center estimated that 8.3 million undocumented workers could be affected. This would lead to an increase of more than 2% in inflation in the United States next year, 0.2% in the euro zone and 0.6% in China, according to the PIIE.
Gilles Moec also warns that this “would slow down the reduction in interest rates” initiated by the major central banks in recent months, thanks to a lull in inflation, and which was likely to encourage households to consume as well as companies to invest.
Asia and the United States, two locomotives in slow motion?
The trade war promised by Donald Trump to the second largest economy in the world, China, also risks weighing on the dynamics of global growth, driven by Asia and America.
Asia currently contributes 60% to this global growth, but risks being penalized by a worsening of the trade war, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in early November.
The United States is the only one of the main advanced countries, along with Spain and Canada, to expect growth above 2% next year, the IMF estimated. But the application of Donald Trump’s program risks costing more than 2% per year between 2027 and 2031 to American GDP, in a non-pessimistic scenario, assessed the PIIE.
A new paradigm for tech?
The risk of stricter regulation by the Democrats was averted on Wednesday and allows technology groups to look to the future more calmly, especially as this sector, historically favored by the Democrats, seems to have moved closer to the Republican camp.
“We could imagine more deregulation,” notes Gilles Moec, recalling Elon Musk’s proximity to Donald Trump.
Daniel Ives, analyst at the American company Wedbush, reports that “we expect major initiatives in artificial intelligence within the American government”.
“The majority of observers believe that (the head of the US competition authority FTC, Lina) Khan could be removed from her position, which could represent a huge catalyst for transactions in ‘Big Tech’,” adds – he said in a note on Wednesday.
The cryptocurrency market could particularly benefit from regulatory relaxations, which fueled the rise of bitcoin to a new historic record on Wednesday.
