[Article initialement publié le jeudi 31 octobre 2024 à 07h30 et mis à jour le mercredi 06 novembre 2024 à 10h20] The return of Donald Trump to the Oval Office of the White House is confirmed, already causing some cold sweats, across the Atlantic… but also on the other side of the Pacific Ocean. And for good reason, the businessman plans to erect a real tax wall. The now 47th President of the United States has promised to impose a universal customs duty of 10% or 20% on all products not manufactured in the United States, and even 60% on goods from China.
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The decision would apply to no less than “ 3,000 billion dollars of imported products », anticipated Antoine Bouët, director of the Center for Prospective Studies and International Information (Cepii), at the end of October, with The Tribune.
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Rebalancing the trade balance
This massive surcharge will be a saving grace for the American economy, argues Donald Trump. “ He is a mercantilist, that is to say he judges the success or failure of his country based on external surpluses or deficits », defined Bruno Cavalier, economist at asset manager Oddo BHF, in a note. Gold, ” Trump will find that the United States trade deficit is still very large », had qualified the economist. If it decreased by 18% over one year, in 2023, the imbalance between American exports and imports stood at 773 billion euros. An unacceptable situation for the billionaire. He accuses China of being largely responsible.
The former Middle Kingdom has nevertheless gone from the equivalent of more than half of the American external deficit in 2016 to 25% today. The Republican now plans to completely rebalance the scales. Chinese imports represented $426 billion in 2023, making Beijing the second largest importing country to the United States, after Mexico. On the contrary, Washington exported $148 billion worth of goods to China last year.
For the Republican therefore: “The higher the customs duties, the more likely a company is to establish itself in the United States » and to produce locally, he justified on October 16.
Sharp drop in Chinese GDP
A conviction which, if it comes to fruition with the return of Donald Trump, will result in significant upheavals for the Chinese economy and world trade. If the customs duties desired by Donald Trump are implemented, trade between the United States and China could be reduced by 80% by 2030, according to a Cepii study published in October.
« China sends a lot of electronics and appliance products to America and, with these taxes, it could be supplanted by other Asian countries whose products would be more competitive », Gary Ng, economist specializing in Asia at Natixis bank, told us.
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In such a scenario, the Roland Berger firm estimated that the Chinese economy would suffer a shortfall of $827 billion during the next term, if the Republicans also won Parliament. Cepii had estimated that Chinese GDP could even decrease by 1.3% between 2024 and 2029. And the commercial cold snap would not be limited to Beijing.
« The international trade crisis would be equivalent to that experienced in 2020 and global GDP could fall by 0.5% between today and 2030 if the targeted countries put in place countermeasures », warned Antoine Bouët of Cepii.
A concern which, however, was not shared by all observers before the election. “ It would be important, but it would not be the end of the world for Beijing, because during Trump's first term, American measures ultimately did not harm the Chinese economy. », said David Gaud, associated with the family office (a wealth manager) B. Durand Capital Partners, specialist in China. The former president had, in fact, imposed 20% customs duties on Chinese products in 2019, before canceling them thanks to an agreement in 2020.
Adverse effects in the United States
Above all, Beijing would not be the only loser. The American economy itself could suffer greatly. Roland Berger predicted $749 billion in cumulative losses to US GDP between 2024 and 2029 due to tariffs. Cepii even saw the American economy decline by 1.3% over the next term.
Moreover, ” there is a strong risk of an increase in the prices of imported products, which could lead to a resurgence of inflation in the United States », Said Sarah Guillou, director of the Innovation and Competition department at the OFCE. According to the economist, “ it is not at all certain that the American trade balance will benefit from these customs duties in the short term. This would require American companies to produce and export more, which will not necessarily be the case if their production costs increase. »
« Another theory is that the tariffs are so high, so terrible, so odious, that (foreign manufacturers) will come right away » produce in the United States, dismissed the Republican in a speech in October, denying the risk of inflation and a drop in GDP.
