In Arizonapreliminary results are expected on the evening of November 5, with early ballots favoring Kamala Harris. A shift in favor of Donald Trump is then expected, with the votes of the polling stations on election day. Then the identity of the winner at the state level should subsequently emerge.
Very popular in Georgiaearly in-person voting is expected to account for 65% to 70% of ballots, according to estimates from local officials. Postal votes, the total of which should be around 5% of the vote, can be processed during the two weeks before the election – steps like verifying signatures are necessary – but must only be counted on the day of the vote. 'election. Candidates can request a recount if the final margin is less than or equal to 0.5 percentage points of the total votes cast.
In the Michiganofficials first implemented in-person early voting after the 2020 election. « mirage rouge » then appeared with the counting of the first ballots, favorable to Donald Trump, before the longer counting of votes by mail created a “blue shift”Joe Biden taking the lead.
In the Nevadathe 2020 count was very slow and the media had reported a local victory for Joe Biden just five days after the election date. The authorities have assured that changes made since then should help speed up the process. But postal voting has become popular and, unique among the seven swing statesis accepted for all voters after November 5, provided the postmark is not later.
In North Carolinathe counting in the polling stations, on D-day, will be carried out throughout the evening, with the aim of announcing the complete results before midnight (in the early hours of Wednesday November 6). But, a period of ten days is set to count the ballots arriving by mail on November 5 as well as the votes of military personnel and expatriates. In 2020, the media waited until November 13, ten days after the election, to award Donald Trump the victory in North Carolina. In 25 western counties hardest hit by Hurricane Helene in late September, voters were given special accommodations to vote, and a small number of secure tents were erected to replace polling places destroyed.
In 2020, it took four days to know the winner in Pennsylvania : due to delays in processing postal votes, the first results – based on voters who went to polling stations on November 5 – should likely place Donald Trump in the lead, a lead which could subsequently be reduced with the accounting of ballots sent by post. A new law requires most counties in the state to announce the number of ballots remaining to be processed late in the evening on November 5 – a measure intended to guard against any conspiracy theories.
The Wisconsin is one of the few states where mail-in ballots will only be processed the morning of November 5th. In addition, many large cities in Wisconsin route these letters to a centralized site for processing. A large number of votes can therefore be announced at once, on the night following election night.
In 2020, Donald Trump and his allies falsely claimed fraud after Milwaukee, the state's largest city, announced the results of nearly 170,000 ballots around 3:30 a.m. (10:30 a.m. in Paris). by mail, Joe Biden then taking the lead in the poll for the first time. This ” bounce “ of the Democratic candidate was expected, given the way election officials in Milwaukee process mail-in votes and the fact that Democrats were considered more likely to use it. A similar situation is anticipated this year.
