LThe time of the verdict is approaching. During the last weekend before the vote on Tuesday, November 5, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris tirelessly continued their marathon to convince the last undecided people through the swing stateswhile 75 million Americans have already voted. And if the outcome of the American presidential election remains more uncertain than ever, with candidates who do not leave each other in the polls, a surprising study placing Kamala Harris in the lead in Iowa has made Donald Trump furious.
In 2016 and 2020, most institutes predicted a wide gap in favor of Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden in the Midwest and Great Lakes region. But J. Ann Selzer's latest poll for the Des Moines Register showed a breakthrough for Donald Trump in Iowa, particularly in the white electorate, which was confirmed from Pennsylvania to Wisconsin. This year, the pollster, which acts as an oracle in the United States, is the cause of a small earthquake: its latest study gives Kamala Harris a 3-point lead, driven by the women's vote. A spectacular reversal of trend, while the former president led by 4 points in the September barometer.
Harris worn by women and seniors
Statistical aberration, when another poll (Emerson) places Trump at +10 in this rural state which voted twice for Obama before swinging firmly to the right? Possible. But in 2016 and 2020, Selzer almost hit the nail on the head, measuring Trump at +7 both times (he won Iowa by 9 and 8 points respectively).
ALSO READ United States: today's electoral bases are no longer those of yesterdayHow to explain such a score? In this poll, Harris crushes Donald Trump among women, including among independents (+ 28 points) and among those over 65 (+ 35 points). In a state that has banned abortion after six weeks, except in cases of rape, incest or danger to the mother's life, abortion could come back to haunt Donald Trump. More surprisingly, Kamala Harris is even ahead among men over 65, while many seniors are worried that the Republican will affect their health or their retirement.
“No president has done more for farmers and the great state of Iowa than Donald Trump”, reacted the person concerned, denouncing “a poll biased towards the Democrats by a woman who hates Trump”. We will know Tuesday evening if he was wrong not to campaign in a state which seemed committed to his cause.
Nobody makes the difference
Iowa, which only offers 6 electoral votes, will probably not be decisive. And for the moment, no other poll shows a potential breakthrough for Kamala Harris in the three neighboring states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) which could be enough to seal her victory: the Democrat and the Republican are holding on in less than one point, according to the RealClearPolling average.
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Kangaroo of the day
Answer
In the Sun Belt, Donald Trump maintains his best advantage in Arizona (between 2 and 3 points). And if he is still ahead in Georgia (2 points) and North Carolina (1.5 points), the latest poll of the New York Times places Harris in the lead by a hair in these two states, an inverse situation compared to the end of September. It would be due in particular to its progression in the large African-American population. And if Kamala Harris loses a state in the north, like Pennsylvania or Michigan, she will absolutely have to compensate in the south with Georgia or North Carolina.
ALSO READ American presidential election: the five keys to the Trump-Harris duelUnder these conditions, even the bettors are undecided: Polymarket gives a tiny advantage to Donald Trump and PredictIt to Kamala Harris. Be careful, the electoral college system is such that it only takes an error of two to three points in the polls for Trump or Harris to win a large victory. Verdict during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday… or a few days later.
