The world is looking forward to the race for the White House. An overview of the most important geopolitical hotspots.
Author:
Patrick McEvily
03.11.2024, 09:18
It is the domestic politics of the USA that dominates the election campaign. But the consequences of the election on November 5th will be felt worldwide. An overview of the hotspots worldwide and SRF correspondent Sebastian Ramspeck’s assessments of what to expect from a Trump or Harris presidency.
Sebastian Ramspeck
International correspondent
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Sebastian Ramspeck is an international correspondent for SRF. Previously, he was a correspondent in Brussels and worked as a business reporter for the news magazine “10vor10”. Ramspeck studied international relations at the Graduate Institute in Geneva.
Here you will find further articles by Sebastian Ramspeck and information about him.
Ukraine
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in spring 2022 presented the West with probably its biggest challenge since the Cold War. Unity was quickly achieved – for example in energy policy, where the EU is increasingly relying on liquid gas from the USA or Qatar instead of Russian natural gas. But almost three years after the outbreak of war, the costs of supporting Kiev are becoming increasingly controversial. And Ukraine is coming under increasing military pressure – and is in danger of losing the war.
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The Ukrainian soldiers are coming under increasing pressure on the fronts. (Image: Front line in Donetsk, November 1, 2024)
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- Kamala Harris is likely to continue the policy of her predecessor Joe Biden: weapons for Ukraine – but not enough to win against Russia. The war could last a long time, until Ukraine’s defeat or a painful deal with Russia.
- Donald Trump promises to end the war within 24 hours. That would probably mean putting pressure on both sides to immediately stop using their weapons and agree to the partition of Ukraine. Chances of success: doubtful. It would also be conceivable that Trump would continue to supply Ukraine with weapons, but make the Europeans pay.
Sebastian Ramspeck
The Middle East
The Palestinian Hamas terrorist attack against Israel on October 7 last year ended a period of detente, at least on the surface. Israel and the Arab states had become closer during Trump’s first term in office. At the same time, the USA pursued a confrontational policy towards Iran. However, the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians has not been resolved. Since the Hamas attack, the war between Israel and Iran and its allies has escalated in the Palestinian territories, Lebanon and elsewhere.
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Over 40,000 dead and 1.9 million internally displaced people: the situation in the Gaza Strip is precarious and there is currently no end in sight. (Image: North Gaza, May 30, 2024)
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- Kamala Harris Israel’s government of Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to urge more restraint with regard to the Palestinian territories and Lebanon. However, the policy will hardly change in this matter. The USA lets Israel have its way, but is trying to avoid a major war with Iran.
- Donald Trump is a friend of Netanyahu and is likely to be fully on Israel’s side, especially when it comes to Iran. At the same time, Trump sells himself as a man of peace; the escalation in the Middle East does not fit with this image. This could put Trump in a dilemma.
Sebastian Ramspeck
Africa
The current geopolitical rivalries are particularly intense on the continent. Russia has concluded security agreements with several countries and has sent mercenaries. China is also trying to establish relationships, especially economic ones. Washington’s European partners, on the other hand, are fighting for their influence in the Sahel region. A bloody civil war is also raging in Sudan, which has so far resulted in thousands of deaths. And last but not least, migration plays a role: people from the African continent have been appearing at the Mexican-American border for years.
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Example: South Sudan: Conflicts and climate change present the country with major challenges. According to the UN World Food Program (WFP), over half of the population has limited access to food. In addition, many people from the civil war-torn country of Sudan are fleeing here.
Archiv/REUTERS/Goran Tomasevic
- Kamala Harris: The USA has paid little attention to Africa for many years and is therefore steadily losing influence. There is nothing to suggest that Harris will do much to change that.
- Donald Trump Like Harris, shows little interest in the African continent. With a view to immigration from Africa, in 2018 he spoke of “shithole countries”. In a second term he is likely to try to significantly cut aid funds for Africa.
Sebastian Ramspeck
Asia
The USA has recently set a lot of priorities in the confrontation with China. Under Joe Biden, Washington has strengthened its alliances in the region with partners such as Japan and the Philippines. China, on the other hand, is becoming increasingly confrontational towards Taiwan and has recently repeatedly held military exercises dangerously close to the island. India’s stance in this geopolitical power game between the superpowers also appears relevant. New Delhi positions itself as a middle power.
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Tensions between China and Taiwan continue to grow. (Image: Artillery exercises in southern Taiwan, August 9, 2022)
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- Kamala Harris sees China as the USA’s real rival in the 21st century. It is likely to continue the punitive tariff policy of predecessor Biden and Trump and, in particular, seek support from states such as Japan, but also India, in the confrontation with China.
- Donald Trumps China policy should not differ from Harris’s in terms of thrust, but in manner and tone. He will appear more strident and bolder than his counterpart Xi Jinping. He would be hesitant about supporting Taiwan in the event of an attack by China.
Sebastian Ramspeck
Latin America
From Washington’s perspective, the issue of migration dominates relations with its southern neighbors. Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that Mexico will pay the price for building the border wall. Under the Biden administration, the number of asylum seekers rose sharply, but has recently fallen again – including from Venezuela, where the Maduro regime has been on a confrontation course with Washington for decades. There is also criticism of Washington from the most populous country on the semi-continent: Brazil’s Lula da Silva has sometimes publicly sided with China and Russia.
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Thousands of people from Latin America continue to head towards the US border in the hope of a better life. (Image: Southern Mexico, January 8, 2024)
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- Kamala Harris is criticized as vice president for high immigration at the southern border. As president, she would try to combat the causes of migration on the ground in Latin America, but this would amount to a Sisyphean task.
- Donald Trumps Latin America policy is also likely to be influenced more by domestic than foreign policy. The focus is on the fight against immigration and the trade deficit. Trump wants to “remigrate” millions of Latinos and impose high tariffs.
Sebastian Ramspeck
Swiss
