Live Elections America | Harris surprisingly leads in poll in Iowa thanks to elderly and women: “If you want to bet on a horse, then on the elderly”
The state of Iowa was already colored Republican red on almost every election map. In 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump won a clear victory. The state had moved rapidly toward the Republicans and to the right in recent years. A new poll by Selzer & Co for the newspaper Des Moines Register in which Kamala Harris suddenly has a bonus of three percentage points over Trump (47 against 44 percent), is therefore very surprising.
It seems like an overly rosy assessment of Harris’ chances in the state, but Selzer & Co is a highly respected polling firm in Iowa. “I don’t think anyone saw this coming,” notes J. Ann Selzer, the company’s head.
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that explain these numbers,” Selzer says in the Des Moines Register. Harris owes her rise to independent female voters. In addition, her lead among older voters, who often show up at the polls, is remarkable. Harris is almost twenty percentage points ahead of Trump in that category. “If you want to bet on a horse, bet on the elderly, because they are going to vote,” Selzer notes. The poll from a respected pollster is a boost for the Democratic camp after Trump increasingly chipped away at Harris’ lead in polls in battleground states in recent weeks.
Caution remains necessary: the poll has a margin of error of approximately 3.4 percent. Still, it would be shocking if Harris comes close to Trump on November 5. When Joe Biden was still a candidate, he was no less than 18 percentage points behind in a Selzer poll. Harris closed that gap to 4 percentage points in September, according to Selzer & Co. However, an advantage is completely unexpected.
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It seems like an overly rosy assessment of Harris’ chances in the state, but Selzer & Co is a highly respected polling firm in Iowa. “I don’t think anyone saw this coming,” notes J. Ann Selzer, the company’s head.
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that explain these numbers,” Selzer says in the Des Moines Register. Harris owes her rise to independent female voters. In addition, her lead among older voters, who often show up at the polls, is remarkable. Harris is almost twenty percentage points ahead of Trump in that category. “If you want to bet on a horse, bet on the elderly, because they are going to vote,” Selzer notes. The poll from a respected pollster is a boost for the Democratic camp after Trump increasingly chipped away at Harris’ lead in polls in battleground states in recent weeks.
Caution remains necessary: the poll has a margin of error of approximately 3.4 percent. Still, it would be shocking if Harris comes close to Trump on November 5. When Joe Biden was still a candidate, he was no less than 18 percentage points behind in a Selzer poll. Harris closed that gap to 4 percentage points in September, according to Selzer & Co. However, an advantage is completely unexpected.
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