Are 20 Minutes readers prognosticating geniuses? It’s possible. We challenged you to measure yourself against artificial intelligence during several matches of the preliminary phase of Euro 2024. In 63% of cases, you predicted the correct winner, as did the algorithm of Playful:ai, a Lausanne start-up founded by Victor Kristof and Lucas Maystre.
“We must first clarify that our model does not predict the winner of the match, because that is impossible,” explains Victor Kristof. It quantifies the probability of an event occurring.”
Other elements must be considered. Like the fact that the algorithm does not take into account the situation in the tournament. That is to say, it did not recalculate the probabilities if a team, already qualified, decided to rotate its squad. Or the meetings chosen by 20 minutes for its competitions.
“Of the 11 matches, there were Switzerland and Portugal. Emotional ties probably motivated readers to make optimistic predictions. As both teams performed well, this was reflected in the results.”
Halfway through the competition, 36 matches have already taken place and 22 ended with the success of one of the two teams. Of these, the model predicted the correct winner in 77% of cases. Enough to make Victor Kristof the king of predictions during competitions between friends? “I didn’t have time to challenge them, but I would have followed my model. I followed him in previous competitions and I was pretty good.”
Because who says Euro, also says predictions with family, friends or colleagues. And often, casual followers beat football fans. In the competition organized by RTS, David Lemos, the commentator of the Swiss team, does well (179th) but Johan Djourou, his consultant and former professional, is only in 14,314th place in the ranking.
“It’s a funny observation, but there isn’t really a scientific explanation to describe it,” emphasizes Victor Kristof. There is an element of surprise and luck in football and in a match many unexpected events occur. It would be interesting to analyze the performance of a bettor who bases all his predictions on chance.”
Now for the final phase. Our competition continues with the round of 16 between Switzerland and Italy (Saturday 6 p.m.).
Of the 100,000 simulations carried out by Playful:ai, Spain is the European champion in 26% of cases. Next come England (17%) and the Netherlands (14%), who have been disappointing so far. “The model takes into account that these two countries are in the weakest part of the table.”
As for Switzerland, its chances of ascending to the continental throne are still 1%, as at the start of the tournament.
