Beijing reacts angrily to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s National Day speech. Since early morning, China has launched a major maneuver around the island.
A Taiwanese coast guard official points to a Chinese coast guard ship that is taking part in the large-scale exercise “Joint Sword 2024B”. The image was taken by the Taiwan Coast Guard.
Taiwan Coast Guard
China launched a major maneuver around the island of Taiwan early Monday morning. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Regional Command said its army, navy, air force and missile forces began exercise Joint Sword 2024B in the Taiwan Strait and north, south and east of Taiwan.
Although the maneuver was only announced when it began at five a.m. local time on Monday morning, it was expected. Last Thursday, the Republic of China, as Taiwan is officially called, celebrated its national day. In his speech, President Lai Ching-te said: “The Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other. In this country, democracy and freedom grow and thrive. The People’s Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan.”
China speaks of deterring separatist activities
From a Taiwanese perspective, this was nothing new; compared to his inauguration speech in May, Lai criticized Beijing less harshly. But in the eyes of the communist leadership on the mainland, for whom Lai is nothing more than a separatist, this was confirmation that Taiwan’s president supports the island’s independence.
This is reflected in the justification for the maneuver. It is an effective deterrent against separatist activities by “Taiwan independence elements,” a spokesman for the People’s Liberation Army said, according to the official Xinhua news agency. It is a legitimate and necessary measure to protect China’s sovereignty and national unity.
Beijing had already responded to Lai’s speech with a major maneuver in May. The training areas are not identical, but once again they are located around the main island of Taiwan, each in front of large ports and military bases. Three smaller training areas are located around small islands a few kilometers off the Chinese mainland but controlled by Taiwan.
With the training areas around the main island, the People’s Liberation Army is trying to signal that it could cut Taiwan off from the outside world. This time, numerous coast guard ships are also taking part, circumnavigating Taiwan in four groups, as Chinese state media reported.
With a quarantine, China could hit Taiwan’s economy
This could be a reference to a scenario that experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) have mentally rehearsed in detail: a quarantine.
Instead of a military blockade, which is considered an act of war, Beijing could impose regulations on ships wanting to enter Taiwan ports. The goal of the quarantine would be to put economic pressure on Taiwan. In addition, China could show that it has de facto control over the island, write the CSIS experts.
The Chinese Coast Guard – the largest and most armed in the world – would be tasked with enforcing the quarantine. The controls would primarily take place in front of the port of Kaohsiung, where over half of Taiwan’s trade is handled by sea. The controls would lead to delays in maritime trade. Delivery times lengthened and costs rose.
It is not yet clear whether the Chinese coast guard is practicing exactly this scenario. But it apparently wants to show that it is capable of operating around Taiwan.
How does Taiwan distinguish between exercise and attack?
With these large-scale maneuvers, China is keeping the Taiwanese armed forces on their toes. Thanks to their numerical superiority, the Chinese side can rotate units and personnel, but the Taiwanese armed forces and coast guards are showing signs of wear and tear.
“China is capable of setting up a blockade of Taiwan at any time,” said the head of the Taiwanese navy, Admiral Tang Hua, in an interview with the British news magazine “The Economist”. China is pursuing an anaconda tactic of slowly strangling Taiwan.
China’s constant military activity around Taiwan has made it more difficult to detect signs of attack, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo said in an interview with the Financial Times in September: “The scale of military activity is getting bigger and bigger, and so it is more difficult to do so recognize when they move from an exercise to a war.”
The latest major maneuver around Taiwan is a further step in China’s strategy.
