Kamala Harris is in great danger

end of honeymoon

According to fresh polls, the vice-president is no longer as popular as three months ago and her lead over Donald Trump, at the national level, has melted. Three weeks before the presidential election, Democrats fear Harris’ defeat, even if betting on the winner is now as reliable as flipping a coin.

Friday, an editorialist from The Hill dared a provocative prediction, rolling out four reasons why Kamala Harris will lose the presidential election. His insecurity, his wish not to emancipate himself from the Biden-Harris government, his helplessness in the face of a candidate who is a master of the cult of personality and a significant number of Americans “who say they are less well off than there is four years.

Of course, this is one analysis among others. However, polls revealed this Sunday show that the vice-president is less popular than when she took off three months ago, and in particular “with young voters”.

Barring a surprise in the last few meters and in one of the key states, the 2024 presidential election will therefore be played out in a pinch. The pollsters work under the microscope, the results contradict each other from hour to hour and the two candidates fight each other within the margins of error. While Donald Trump has sweated for many weeks since the abandonment of Joe Biden, quickly losing five points at the national level to the benefit of his dynamic replacement, Kamalamania is now over, and “the race is back to a tie”.

If the last 100 meters have never been so close, the challenge for the two candidates is the same: to succeed in flirting with and convincing the 10% of voters who say they are likely to change horses at the last moment. More than undecided people, they are American citizens who seem to be fully aware that “the outcome of this presidential election will have a major impact on their lives”.

Concerning Kamala Harris’s weak points, pollsters, but also internal indiscretions within her party, point to her inability to offer “anything other than continuity” and to retain the loyalty of the male electorate. And fear lurks on the ground: while his running mate Tim Walz wets his shirt to convince the “Hombres con Harris”, Barack Obama on Thursday lectured black men who might not vote for ONE candidate.

As surveys often fly in squadrons, the New York Times also deployed its figures this Sunday. And the situation is serious on the Latino side: “Vice President Kamala Harris’ support among Hispanic voters is dangerously low for Democrats, while her rival, former President Donald J. Trump, has maintained his strength in within the growing group.

The study goes even further, noting that “more than a third of Hispanic voters” say they are in favor “of building a wall along the border between the United States and Mexico. Including among Democratic voters.”

The race is historically tight at the national level, but it is also tight in the seven key states, where Donald Trump, still in a tight spot, regularly leads by a small point. In conclusion, if the election were played today, betting on the winner would be as reliable as flipping a coin.

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The Republican candidate caused a sensation this weekend, announcing two impressive meetings in states that he is sure to lose. The first at Coachella, California, the other at the famous Madison Square Garden in New York. Where 20,000 Hitler supporters gathered on February 20, 1939. And it’s getting people talking.

For several weeks, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have both been spending a fortune in Pennsylvania. More than a key state, Pennsylvania could well have the power to single-handedly elect the next president of the United States. More generally, the candidates give of themselves in the most contested territories, from Georgia to Wisconsin, via North Carolina, in order to tilt the ballot boxes on their side.