Tour debates: Bardet’s greatest victory, a suspended yellow jersey and Pogacar expected in Bologna

Because it was unexpected, because it was snatched at the end of a breathless mano-a-mano with what was left of the peloton, because it allowed him, above all, to don the yellow jersey for the first time in his career – while he is taking part in his final Tour de France – the victory won by Romain Bardet is superb in every way. In terms of pure performance, however, it is not the best.

In 2017, the Brioude native won the 12th stage of the Grande Boucle, which finished at the Peyragudes altiport. That day, in the final hectometres of a horribly steep climb, the Frenchman imposed himself like a strongman ahead of Rigoberto Uran and Fabio Aru, while putting 22 seconds in the sight of Chris Froome, the future winner of the race. That day, the AG2R-La Mondiale rider showed that he was the strongest of the favourites and, even if he finished “only” third in the general classification, this success will probably remain his most convincing.

If the family fiber links me to his success in the Tour de l’Ain 2013, it is clear that his greatest victory is necessarily in the Tour de France. And in this little game, if the victory at the top of Peyragudes, on the pedal, is undoubtedly the paroxysm of his sporting level (2nd in the Tour that year) as Raphael mentions, difficult to think that this 29 June 2024 is not the greatest moment of Bardet’s career.

Seeing him don his very first yellow jersey, at 33 years old, a few days after announcing his retirement in June 2025, for his last Tour de France has a symbolism and a force of recognition inseparable from his victory. And the manner, this 35km duo with his young teammate who was undoubtedly stronger but who will have let him win, by narrowly resisting the peloton in a suspenseful finale, makes it even more unforgettable. And, in my opinion, more beautiful.

Romain Bardet’s reign in this 2024 Tour is certainly very appreciable, but it risks being short-lived. In truth, it would not be surprising if the Tricolore handed in his coat on Sunday, after crossing the line in Bologna. First of all because his huge expenditure of energy today will certainly leave its mark and the very hilly profile of the 2nd stage, accompanied by intense heat, will probably not be conducive to recovery. Especially if the big shots in the peloton engage in a first battle on the San Luca hill (see below).

Moreover, the Auvergnat has made no secret of his ambitions for July: he is completely disinterested in the general classification, this straitjacket which has, for so long, prevented him from signing numbers such as the one he has. is offered this Saturday. Of course, a yellow jersey defends itself and we can easily imagine the leader of the DSM-Firmenich PostNL clinging as much as possible to his precious tunic. However, he will not make it an obsession, especially if a waste of time allows him to obtain other exit vouchers later.

Let’s not lie to ourselves: as Raphaël points out, it is very likely that Romain Bardet will lose his yellow jersey on Sunday in Bologna. A 15” lead does not represent much on the slopes of San Luca but his chance probably lies in the course, once again, with 13km remaining at the top of the 2nd passage. If the favorites have not managed to isolate themselves, will they continue the effort? Not sure.

After all, mathematically speaking, Bardet “only” has to finish in the first group to be assured of keeping his yellow jersey. Given his efforts on Saturday, the short recovery that is coming, the possible slackening with an unexpected accomplishment, the Frenchman from DSM-Firmenich PostNL is supposed to get stuck on the heights of Bologna. But the magic of the yellow jersey can also give him wings and we will not forget that Bardet took 2nd place in the Tour of Emilia in 2016, an event that ends in San Luca.

Yes. I’m not saying that Tadej Pogacar necessarily has to take time back from Sunday, in that, he has time, possibly. On the other hand, not trying your luck in the high percentages of San Luca will be particularly surprising. On paper, it is a field where, with the exception of Remco Evenepoel perhaps, and again, it has no rival. Even if the Tour d’Emilie never smiled on him (2nd in 2022 and 2023), there is everything to create gaps with two climbs and little flat to finish.

Above all, Pogacar absolutely must test Jonas Vingegaard’s state of form at the start of the Tour. The Dane’s preparation has not been optimal, we know, and he could very well be in pain this weekend. He was obviously not put in difficulty this Saturday, UAE-Emirates not having pushed his pressure, but it could be quite different tomorrow towards Bologna. For that alone, the Slovenian must move. And I am convinced that he will.

Two months ago, Tadej Pogacar made his mark in the second stage of the Giro by winning at the Oropa sanctuary, at the same time getting his hands on the pink jersey. We know the Slovenian’s resolutely offensive temperament and we wouldn’t be surprised to see him do it again this Sunday, on the second stage of the Tour de France. However, he wouldn’t really want to come out of the woods so soon.

Already, the competition he faces in this Grande Boucle is much tougher than the one he beat without batting an eyelid in May, which encourages – in principle – greater caution. And this is all the more true since the San Luca hill, climbed twice, is far too short (1.9 km) to create any real gaps. “Pogi” could therefore be content to ask his teammates to keep a sustained tempo at the front of the peloton, in order to get those who are not feeling well to jump on the pedals. He would thus have the possibility of saving some energy and placing his first banderillas a little later. Why not Tuesday, on the slopes of Galibier?