(Ottawa) Justin Trudeau gives in to pressure to avoid an unprecedented rebellion by his troops, 48 hours before an extraordinary meeting of the national caucus urgently convened to decide on his political future.
Published at 5:00 a.m.
Justin Trudeau confirmed Monday that he intends to resign from his positions as Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party of Canada (PLC) as soon as party supporters have elected a new leader. In the meantime, he asked Governor General Mary Simon that Parliament be prorogued until March 24 – a wish that was quickly granted by King Charles III’s representative in Canada.
Such a move means that parliamentary work, which was to resume on January 27, is put on pause. The three opposition parties – the Conservative Party, the Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party (NDP) – will not be able to unite their efforts to bring about the fall of the minority Liberal government and the holding of a vote before the week of the 24 March at the earliest.
Parliamentary committees are also dissolved. The Conservative Party planned to take advantage of a meeting of the public accounts committee on Tuesday to pass a motion of censure in the government which could have been sent to the House of Commons for a vote by all MPs on January 30. This conservative strategy has been neutralized.
By thus taking the lead, Justin Trudeau succeeded, in a certain way, in setting the conditions for his departure.
He also believes he is able to offer a certain stability to the country after a month of political crisis that he himself caused by wanting to oust Chrystia Freeland from the Ministry of Finance to appoint the former governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney. Justin Trudeau made his intentions known two weeks before the return to power of President-elect Donald Trump, who promises to impose customs tariffs of 25% on all Canadian products as of January 20.
« J’ai l’intention de démissionner de mes postes de chef du Parti libéral du Canada et de premier ministre une fois que le parti aura choisi son prochain chef à l’issue d’un processus national, rigoureux et compétitif », a déclaré le premier ministre durant une conférence de presse à Rideau Cottage.
Reconnaissant que son leadership et sa volonté de rester en poste avaient provoqué « des batailles internes », Justin Trudeau croit que l’arrivée d’un nouveau chef donnera au PLC un nouvel élan après neuf ans au pouvoir, tandis que des élections fédérales semblent inévitables au printemps.
Le temps manque
Le Parti conservateur détient une avance quasi insurmontable de 20 points dans les intentions de vote sur les libéraux depuis plus de 12 mois.
Le prochain scrutin ne sera donc pas un référendum sur Justin Trudeau, comme l’espéraient les partis de l’opposition, même si son bilan sera incontournable durant la campagne.
« Comme vous le savez, je suis un “fighter”. Dans mon for intérieur, je me suis toujours battu parce que je me soucie profondément des Canadiens. […] It became clear to me that if I have to focus on internal battles, I cannot be the best option in these elections,” he explained.
But the timing chosen to trigger a leadership race within his party – the fourth year of a minority mandate of a government in decline – becomes a de facto poisoned chalice for whoever is elected. Because the new leader will not have such an essential ingredient in politics to win battles: time.
Time, the next Liberal leader will have very little at his disposal. Obligations to respect and decisions to make, he will have them in spades.
This obstacle course could have the effect of deterring some aspirants from trying their luck. Result: the robust debate desired by Justin Trudeau during the race may not take place.
The PLC national council will have to meet within three days to establish the rules of the leadership race. Normally, such a race lasts at least three months, or 90 days. Parliamentary work is due to resume in 77 days. In the current context, we should expect a race to last less than two months. A leadership race, it must be remembered, causes divisions and internal quarrels that only time can heal.
Work to do
After his election, Justin Trudeau’s successor will have to form a new cabinet which corresponds to his vision of the management of state affairs and which takes into account the alliances concluded during the leadership race. Due to the prorogation of Parliament, he will also have to prepare a Speech from the Throne setting out his priorities. This Speech from the Throne is an essential step to launch the new parliamentary session. And this document is the subject of a vote of confidence, which could trigger an election if the three opposition parties reject it – the most likely scenario in light of the statements of the Conservative Party, the Bloc Québécois and the NDP over the last few weeks.
At the same time, the next leader and his team of close collaborators will have to work on an electoral program, recruit candidates and ensure that the party is ready for the next electoral battle. The PLC’s electoral fund, already significantly less than that of the Conservative Party, could suffer more due to the leadership race. A donation to a candidate in a race comes at the expense of party funding.
Two influential Quebec ministers who are frequently mentioned as potential candidates – Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly – could be tempted to pass on for another reason: principle unwritten of the alternation which prevails in the PLC between a French-speaking leader from Quebec and a leader from the rest of the country. This principle, if respected to the letter, could give an advantage to Chrystia Freeland, Mark Carney, Anita Anand, Christy Clark or Dominic LeBlanc.
The race will be short. Within two weeks, we should have a better idea of which candidates are ready to receive the poisoned gift that Justin Trudeau finalized during his holiday reflection.
