What to expect after the legislative elections in France? | French legislative elections 2024

The French are called to vote on Sunday in the first round of the early legislative elections called by Emmanuel Macron, to everyone’s surprise, after the crushing defeat of his party in the European elections.

On June 9, the president’s party bit the dust in the European Parliament elections. Its list won 14.60% of the vote, half the 31.37% won by the far-right National Rally (RN) party led by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen.

These poor results on the European scene in no way obliged him to call elections in France. MEPs sit in Strasbourg and deal with issues related to the European Union (EU).

However, President Macron, whose party has been in the minority in the French National Assembly since the 2022 election and who is struggling to carry out his projects, surprised everyone by calling early legislative elections.

Political miscalculation, pure madness, poker move… On the eve of these national elections, analysts are still struggling to understand what pushed Emmanuel Macron to act in this way, but most agree that he got away with it. in the foot.

The National Rally — the former National Front — has formed an alliance with part of the Republicans (LR), which brings together the traditional and Gaullist right of Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac, to present joint candidacies.

This decision of the head of LRÉric Ciotti, imploded the party, who always defended the idea that he was not going to collaborate with the National Rallynotes Frédéric Mérand, professor and director of the Department of Political Science at the University of Montreal.

But it has allowed the National Rally to almost double its voting intentions compared to the results of two years ago. It is now first in voting intentions, with up to 36% of the vote, according to some polls.

In second position is the New Popular Front, which brings together La France insoumise (LFI) by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the Communist Party, the Socialist Party and the Ecologists. This unexpected alliance of the left garners 28% of support in the polls.

It’s spectacular what happened on the left.observes Frédéric Mérand. years. They disagree on almost everything. And there, in three days, they agreed on going into battle together, on having unique candidates in each of the constituencies and on having a common government program.”,”text”:”Between the France insoumise and the Socialist Party have been absolute hatred for almost 20 years. They disagree on almost everything. And there, in three days, they agreed to go into battle together, to have unique candidates in each constituency and to have a common government program.”}}”>Between rebellious France and the Socialist Party, there has been absolute hatred for almost 20 years. They disagree on almost everything. And there, in three days, they agreed to go into battle together, to have unique candidates in each constituency and to have a common government program.

Not having seen this alliance coming, the president risks being sandwiched and being completely eliminated, or almost, in these electionsunderlines Mr. Mérand.

His bloc only received 20% of voting intentions. Polls predict that he will have a maximum of a hundred deputies, much less than the 250 he controlled when the Assembly was dissolved. On both the right and the left, the French are angry with Macronnotes Erwan Lecoeur, a specialist in the extreme right and a lecturer and researcher at the University of Grenoble Alpes.

What to expect from these legislative elections, the second round of which will take place on July 7?

1. A majority government of RN

Yes, yes RN and his allies obtained an absolute majority in the National Assembly (289 seats out of 577), its leader, Jordan Bardella, would become prime minister. In theory, Emmanuel Macron is not obliged to appoint him, but this role usually falls to the leader of the majority party, given that his nomination must be approved by the National Assembly.

We would then find ourselves in a system of cohabitation, with a president – ​​who is barely beginning the third year of his second five-year term – and a government with different tendencies.

their policies are the opposite on many subjects”,”text”:”There would be very strong tensions since their policies are the opposite on many subjects”}}”>There would be very strong tensions since their policies are opposite on many subjectsunderlines Frédéric Mérand.

On internal policy, Mérand would expect legislation focused on law and order, as well as a toughening of migration and security policy.

In foreign policy, the RN has positions hostile toI TAKE to the European Union and pro-Russian tendencies. Mr. Bardella, however, indicated during the presentation of his program that he considered Russia as a multidimensional threat both to France and to Europe. He also maintained that he would not go back on the commitments made by France to help Ukraine.

The RN However, he is opposed to sending troops into the field, unlike Emmanuel Macron, who refuses to exclude this option.

According to the Constitution, the president is responsible for foreign policy and defense, but in practice he still needs the approval of the Assembly for major decisions.

2. A relative majority for the RN

With 36% of voting intentions, the most likely outcome is that the RN however, failed to achieve an absolute majority.

A relative majority, this is the hypothesis in which Macron thinks that Jordan Bardella will be stuck, because he will find himself in the same position as [l’actuel premier ministre] Gabriel Attalexplains Erwan Lecoeur. That is to say that he will not be able to make a decision and that he will need a majority which he will not find.

Jordan Bardella has already suggested that he would not become prime minister if his party did not have a majority. To govern, I need an absolute majorityhe said recently in an interview.

Who can believe that we can change the daily life of the French by cohabiting with a relative majority? Nobody. I say to the French: to try, we need an absolute majority.

Would he still accept the role of prime minister? And, moreover, would Emmanuel Macron appoint him, in these circumstances?

The president could choose someone else, possibly a technocrat, notes Mr. Lecoeur, to lead the country until the next elections. It is not possible to call new legislative elections for a year.

Anyway, that’s the recipe for the permanent legislative paralysis, believes Frédéric Mérand. This is also the scenario which gives the most room for maneuver to Emmanuel Macron to try to form majorities vote by vote and oppose the RN.

3. The left in power?

An unlikely, but still possible, option is that the left comes out on top with a relative majority.

LFI and communists, we arrive at something like 30%, which is not very far from the National Rally”,”text”:”With their unique candidacy system, if we combine the votes of the Socialist Party, the Greens, the LFI and the Communists, we get somewhere like 30%, which is not very far from the National Rally”}}”>With their unique candidacy system, if we combine the votes of the Socialist Party, the Greens, LFI and the communists, we arrive at something like 30%, which is not very far from the National Rallyrecalls Frédéric Mérand. In the second round, if the voters of the center and center-right opt ​​for the left in order to block the extreme right, the NFP could win.

In this case, it is difficult to say who their candidate for prime minister will be, and even whether the alliance will hold up in the medium term.

In any case, analysts are worried about the period of instability that lies ahead for France.