Marine Le Pen asks the executive to take into account her requests on the budget, as a decisive month of December approaches, under penalty of bringing down the government.
Will the political crisis come to the foot of the French Christmas tree? The government in place since September has not fallen, but as Christmas approaches, the threats are becoming more and more precise, particularly from the far right. Wednesday November 20, Marine Le Pen took a further step towards censorship. “We will not accept that the purchasing power of the French is further reduced in the situation they are experiencing today. It is a red line. If it is exceeded, then we will vote for censorship”launched the leader of the deputies of the National Rally on RTL.
The flame party does not plan to carry out its threats before the final discussions on the budget, which the government should adopt via the use of article 49.3, during the second half of December. The left opposition, with 192 seats in the Assembly, has already warned that it would then table a motion of censure, which would only have a chance of being adopted with the support of the 124 RN deputies, decisive for overthrow the government of Michel Barnier, 289 votes being necessary in the Assembly for such a scenario to occur.
In tune with their leader, the RN troops now seem ready to start the winter with a bang. “This government is taking the road of censorship”pressed Wednesday on RMC Jordan Bardella, president of the party, for whom the draft budget “is an aberration”. “It has become inevitable”confided Tuesday to Monde Philippe Olivier, close advisor to the three-time candidate in the presidential election. “We are increasing our power to censor”an executive from the group already told franceinfo at the end of October: “The government is not taking back anything from our budget, there is no dialogue, no favorable opinion on what we are defending… They have spoiled the debate and legitimized the use of 49.3. The The words were beautiful, but we are starting to be disappointed.”
In this tough budgetary sequence, the RN asks the executive to take into account certain of its requests. Although she did not detail the precise list of her demands, Marine Le Pen opposed the increase in taxes on electricity planned by the government to free up three billion euros, a measure removed by the National Assembly at first reading, but which could return to the hemicycle after examination in the Senate. “Tapping retirees is unacceptable”also affirmed Marine Le Pen on RTL. However, the government has partly reversed its plan to freeze the increase in pensions for six months, after a compromise within the “common base” announced by Laurent Wauquiez, head of right-wing deputies, on November 11. It is now planned to increase pensions by half of inflation from January 1, but to only pass on the second half, on July 1, for pensions below the minimum wage.
For now, the RN remains unhappy with the government's copy. “Michel Barnier must think that we will not censor, that it is not in our interest, but it is an error. If we have not obtained anything in the way of measures, why would we vote for this budget?”summarizes an RN strategist. A game of lying poker has begun against government support. “The RN has fun trying to scare. They want to put pressure on the system, it’s a technique of negotiation, of staging a balance of power”estimates Ensemble pour la République (ex-Renaissance) MP Prisca Thevenot, while Michel Barnier is due to receive Marine Le Pen on Monday, as well as all the presidents of parliamentary groups next week.
“RN deputies will never vote for censure because they are in an issue of respectability, so they have no interest in bringing down the government.”
Prisca Thevenot, spokesperson for the Ensemble pour la République groupat franceinfo
The former government spokesperson accuses the far-right party of “to create a diversion” and“light a counterfire” at the trial of the affair of the parliamentary assistants of the National Front (which has since become the RN). On November 13, prosecutors requested against Marine Le Pen five years in prison, including two prison terms, and five years of ineligibility, with provisional execution. The court's decision will be known at the beginning of 2025 and the one targeting the 2027 presidential election has already announced its intention to appeal a possible conviction.
In any case, the atmosphere has changed a lot compared to the end of the summer, when the RN was pleased to be “unavoidable” and to be correctly considered by Michel Barnier, barely arrived at Matignon. Two months later, the RN is showing its muscles, which pushes the “common base” which supports the government to get lost in conjectures. “The only question is whether Marine Le Pen wants to try the early presidential election. If so, then it’s a scorched earth policy”fears someone close to the Prime Minister.
“What is the point of censoring this government since there is no majority, with three blocs, and the president cannot dissolve it?”asks a minister to franceinfo, perplexed by the intentions of the RN. “There will be a new Prime Minister from the central bloc, but that won't change much… What will change is that France will have no budget! We are in the most complete irrationality .”
Within the RN, several parliamentarians assure that their electoral base is in favor of a motion of censure. “Our activists are asking us to bring down this government, and even our slightly more bourgeois electorate, which was not the case before”says a party executive. According to a survey published on November 15 by Ifop (PDF file)47% of French people are in favor of adopting a motion of censure against the Barnier government, a rate which rises to 57% among RN supporters, and which is up slightly compared to a similar poll (PDF file) conducted at the end of October.
In this balance of power, timing will be central, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Sunday on France 3, bet on the vote for a motion of censure and the fall of the government “between December 15 and 21”. If it survived the budget, the government could roll out other texts, as it has already explained, with the return of the bill on the end of life, but, above all, the arrival of a new draft law. immigration law strongly desired by the Minister of the Interior, Bruno Retailleau. “I think that [Marine Le Pen] will censor us because this is his only opportunity!theorizes another minister. Afterwards, there is the immigration law which she cannot bring down on us, and nothing else.”
