The three blocs leading the voting intentions in the first round of the legislative elections are confirmed in the second Ipsos poll for France Bleu, published this Thursday. Three days before the first round, the National Rally, reinforced by the fringe of the Republicans allied with Éric Ciotti, very slightly increases its lead with 36% of voting intentions (including 32% for the RN alone), or 0.5 points more than our survey published last Saturday.
According to the second Ipsos survey – carried out for Radio France, France TV, Le Monde, Sciences Po Cevipof, the Institut Montaigne and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation – the alliance of left-wing parties gathered under the banner of the New Popular Front points to 29% of the votes (-0.5%). The presidential camp, relegated to third position, stagnates at 19.5% of voting intentions. Far from the podium, the Republicans opposed to the alliance with the RN gained a point and peaked at 8%, while the party of Éric Zemmour Reconquête! is measured at 1.5% (-0.5).
Ipsos
Voters increasingly sure of their choice
This survey also confirms an estimated level of participation higher than previously, at 63% (+1), or 15.5 points more than in the last legislative elections of 2022. A clear increase in participation, while the first round of legislative elections have generally had little mobilization since 1993, after a peak in 1978 (82.8% participation).
Voters are also increasingly sure of their choice. 77% of those questioned who are certain to vote in the first round assure that their choice is final, this is 3 points more compared to our previous survey. Among voters, 65% will vote because they want their candidate to win, 35% say they go to the polling stations to block them.
Ipsos
The survey also reveals significant interest in these legislative elections, with 81% of those questioned saying they were interested, compared to 6%. “not interested”.
Note that two weeks after Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly and organize early legislative elections, a large majority (56%) of respondents have a negative feeling about this dissolution, divided between incomprehension ( 26%), fear (21%) and anger (9%)
Alliances divide
For these legislative elections, the “republican dam” against the extreme right seems to be in trouble. Among those who vote above all for “to block”, 52% do it to counter the RN, while 36% do it to block the left-wing coalition of the New Popular Front. Within the left, the label of La France insoumise does not reassure voters. If the NFP candidate is a rebel, 30% of voters would vote for the left-wing coalition. This score reaches 39% if the candidate from the left bloc is labeled PS. On the other hand, the LFI label arouses significant rejection among socialist sympathizers since only 65% of them assure that they will vote for an Insoumis, while 92% of supporters of the movement founded by Jean-Luc Mélenchon declare that they will vote for the NFP if the candidate is socialist.
Concerning the various alliances, the New Popular Front is rejected by 63% of those questioned, of whom 42% completely disapprove. On the other hand, almost all supporters of La France Insoumise (95%) approve of the alliance between the various left-wing parties, 87% of those close to the Communist Party are in favour of it, while 72% of supporters of the Socialist Party say they are in favour of the NFP. As for the alliance between the National Rally and Éric Ciotti, it is approved by only 40% of those questioned. It is supported by 47% of LR supporters, 86% among RN supporters and even 92% of Zemmourists. Among all respondents, 64% would not vote for an LR candidate if he is supported by the National Rally.
As for the alliance between the National Rally and Éric Ciotti, it is approved by only 40% of those questioned. It is supported by 47% of LR supporters, 86% among RN supporters and even 92% of Zemmourists. Among all respondents, 64% would not vote for an LR candidate if he is supported by the National Rally.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon arouses more unfavorable opinions than Jordan Bardella
Finally, in the event of a RN victory on the evening of July 7, the prospect of seeing Jordan Bardella at Matignon is “a good thing” for 36% of respondents, 51% consider that it is a “bad thing”. The president of the RN arouses support among 93% of supporters of the party inherited from the National Front. Jean-Luc Mélenchon looks like a scarecrow with 78% unfavorable opinions among all those surveyed for his arrival at Matignon. Even in the ranks of La France insoumise, the personality of the left-wing leader is not unanimous for the post of Prime Minister: 67% of LFI supporters are in favor. Only 9% of PS supporters welcome the prospect of seeing Jean-Luc Mélenchon join Matignon.
Among the left-wing figures, the personality with the most consensus is the PS-Place publique MEP Raphaël Glucksmann (24%), followed by the Insoumis François Ruffin (19%). 32% of respondents consider that a return to Matignon by Édouard Philippe would be a good thing, three points more than Gabriel Attal. On the right, the figure of Xavier Bertrand stands out, with 18% favorable opinions for a potential arrival at Matignon.
Ipsos
Most voters consider programs
According to the Ipsos survey, 73% of respondents indicate that they take party programs into account when choosing the candidate to vote for, particularly New Popular Front voters (84%). 9% of those questioned say they do not take the programs into account at all.
The budgetary credibility of the programs is for its part “important and decisive” for 69% of voters in the presidential camp compared to 43% of those in the RN. She is “important but not decisive” for half of RN voters compared to 27% of Ensemble voters.
Methodology
Survey carried out by Ipsos for Radio France, France TV, Le Monde, Sciences Po Cevipof, the Institut Montaigne and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation from June 21 to 24 on a representative sample of 11,820 people, constituting a national sample representative of the French population , registered on the electoral roll, aged 18 and over. Sample surveyed online via Ipsos Access Panel Online. Quota method: sex, age, profession of the person interviewed, category of urban area, region. The margins of error are between 0.2 and 1.1 points.
