When the European elections shake up French politics

This is the kind of thing you don’t usually see on European election night. Sunday, less than an hour after the publication of the first electoral results, the French president spoke at the Élysée.

I can’t act as if nothing happeneddeclared the Head of State before unleashing a real political thunderbolt.

President Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and the calling of early elections, scheduled for less than a month.

At the origin of this coup: the harsh defeat of Emmanuel Macron’s party in the European elections, which obtained around 15% of the votes, while the National Rally received more than double that.

The defeat and disavowal are all the harsher since the president and important members of his government were personally involved in this electoral campaign, to such an extent that Prime Minister Gabriel Attal invited himself to an interview with the main candidate of the party a few days before the election, stealing the show.

Emmanuel Macron is not the only European leader to be so harshly disowned by his voters. The SPD, the center-left party of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, recorded its worst electoral score since 1949 on Sunday evening.

However, in France, the defeat will have a much more important consequence since it risks profoundly modifying the national political map.

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What is Emmanuel Macron playing?

In the French National Assembly, Emmanuel Macron had already been weakened during the last legislative elections, in 2022.

Lacking an absolute majority, his party and its allies depended on the support of other political groups to pass reforms. Often, the government even had to resort to legislative measures to impose the bills, as was the case during the controversial pension reform.

Given the results of Sunday evening in the European elections, the National Rally (RN), which had already recorded a notable increase in its delegation in these 2022 legislative elections, can dream of winning this new election.

The tenors of RN demanded after all this dissolution of the Assembly and carried out their European campaign by focusing heavily on subjects of national concern such as immigration and purchasing power and by highlighting the unpopularity of President Macron.

During the campaign, Emmanuel Macron rejected out of hand the possibility of calling early elections in the event of poor results, explaining that it was a European election and not a national one.

However, the polls already predicted Sunday evening’s result.

So why, in the end, does he respond favorably to the request of RN?

A party in the spotlight

First, the president hopes that the mobilization for the legislative elections, the first round of which is scheduled for June 30 and the second for July 7, will not be the same as during the European elections. Despite an increase in voting on Sunday, the participation rate is around 50%.

Perhaps the Élysée wishes that, faced with the possibility of the first entry of the extreme right into government, its electorate will move and even that a strategic vote will benefit the presidential camp. A risky bet, since even in the absence of their candidates in the second round, nothing guarantees that the argument aimed at block the far right is enough for voters from right-wing or left-wing parties to line up behind the president’s camp.

Emmanuel Macron possibly hopes to have an advantage compared to the last legislative elections. In 2022, several left-wing parties joined forces on a common list. In a two-round election, the multiplication of political offerings can work in favor of certain parties, which need much less support to slip through and move on to the second round. But things could change, since since Sunday evening certain actors on the left have once again launched calls for unity.

And if this strategy fails and the National Rally does indeed end up obtaining a majority of deputies on July 7, it would be called upon to form a government, probably led by Jordan Bardella, the popular candidate behind the success of the RN in the European elections.

This cohabitation would put the RN in the spotlight. This party, which has always been in opposition at the national level, will have to make decisions, which could have an impact on its popularity in view of the next presidential election in 2027.

Finally, another scenario is possible: one in which the RN would not obtain the threshold of 50% of elected officials allowing him to obtain the keys to government, but would significantly increase his delegation. Without a clear majority, the fragmented National Assembly would be even more unpredictable than at present. And France, more difficult to govern.

Nothing to silence the critics, particularly on the left, who have long accused President Macron of playing dangerous games and serving as a step on the far right by constantly opposing his political movement and the National Rally in a binary manner.

He behaves like a political poker playersays Raphaël Glucksmann, candidate of the Socialist Party.

What consequences in Europe?

This evening’s message, including that of dissolution, is also addressed to the Brussels authoritiessaid Marine Le Pen in reaction to Emmanuel Macron’s announcement.

It is true that France is not a unique case on the continent. Also in Austria, the far right, represented by the FPÖ party, came out on top, obtaining almost 30% of the votes. The radical right also made gains in the Netherlands.

Despite the symbol, this push by some of the most right-wing groups on the European political spectrum is limited and will not necessarily have major repercussions on the political dynamics in Brussels and Strasbourg, where the European parties are based.

According to estimates, center-right, center-left and liberal parties would obtain 398 seats out of 720 MEP seats, enough to secure a majority.

Nevertheless, the tremors of the French earthquake could be felt in Brussels since the popularity of more radical parties may push certain groups on the more traditional right to harden their positions on certain issues, notably immigration. Certain recent positions taken by the French party Les Républicains — Nicolas Sarkozy’s former party — or the CDU — Angela Merkel’s former party in Germany — clearly show this.

In addition, France remains a major country within the European Union. A recomposition of its Assembly, or even its government, could result in concrete effects on its decision-making at European level.

One thing is certain, with this electoral marathon which will end with the second round of legislative elections on July 7, the French must prepare for a summer that is not only Olympic, but also highly political.