A showcase at the VivaTech show which is being held in Paris until next Saturday, artificial intelligence (AI) is occupying people’s minds. For the better, with the hope of making France a champion of this technology of the future… And for the worse: will it destroy millions of jobs on French soil, as some experts fear? ? While Emmanuel Macron received tech talents at the Elysée on Tuesday to prepare for the international summit on AI which will be held in Paris in 2025, the tech giants will be present in force at the event organized at Porte de Versailles to extol with great fanfare the merits of this technology. But concerns remain strong in businesses and the world of work. The announcement last September of the closure of 218 positions in France and several hundred around the world by the company Onclusive caused a wave of astonishment. Stunned, the employees learned this news through a message from general management during a videoconference. White-collar workers quickly understood that a large part of their media monitoring tasks would now be carried out by artificial intelligence.
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Nine times after this resounding announcement, the fears are far from having subsided. The spectacular surge in generative artificial intelligence models could have cascading consequences on the economy and in the job market. Faced with these vast upheavals, several economists and lawyers tried to provide some answers during a seminar organized in Bercy this Tuesday, May 21 on the theme of artificial intelligence and employment.
A very uncertain macroeconomic impact
The European economy is currently experiencing stalling compared to the United States and China. On the front line in the Ukraine war, the growth of the Old Continent certainly experienced a slight improvement in the first quarter of 2024 but the threats of stagnation remain. Chief among the concerns is the inexorable fall in productivity gains. Proponents of artificial intelligence argue that improving this technology could bring tremendous productivity gains.
But the economists present at the seminar remain very circumspect. “Prudence leads one to think that one does not know. HAS From the mid-1990s, many recognized authors told us that ICT (information and communication technologies) would bring a renewed growth in productivity not seen since the second industrial revolution. That’s not at all what happened. In the United States, there has been an exhaustion of productivity gains since the Second World War” declared Gilbert Cet, economist specializing in the labor market and close to Emmanuel Macron.
Productivity in French industry: anatomy of a fall
“Little setback” in France
In service economies, “it is always more complicated to measure productivity than in industrial economies”adds Céline Antonin, economist at the OFCE. “Early micro studies show that AI can have a positive impact on productivity. On the macroeconomic impact, it is more difficult to measure because we have little perspective”, adds the teacher. Regarding activity, certain scenarios are very optimistic with “explosive growth” in the USA.
Some economists say “that AI could lead to 1.5 points of growth per year over the next ten years”. Other economists like Daron Acemoglu believe that AI could generate “only 1 to 2 points of GDP growth in total in the United States because he thinks that many tasks cannot be automated”. For the Sciences-Po Paris economist, these strong divergences in the scenarios “illustrate great uncertainties because we do not yet know the extent of the deployment of AI in the economy”. At the beginning of spring, the Commission on Artificial Intelligence submitted a report to the President of the Republic on recommendations to follow for this technology. Asked by The galleryseveral economists considered the report’s forecasts “optimistic”.
This extremely ambitious report submitted to Macron to make France a world champion of artificial intelligence
French SMEs lagging behind
The changes caused by artificial intelligence are all the more uncertain as few companies have really taken the step of investing in this type of tool. In a survey unveiled this Tuesday, May 21 by Bpifrance, only 9% of French SMEs and VSEs say that they have invested in artificial intelligence over the last three years., and only 2% did it regularly.
Suffice to say that the French delay is particularly glaring. Given the weight of SMEs in the French productive fabric, this low percentage highlights the gap between small businesses and large groups sometimes adept at artificial intelligence in their organization. Looking to the future, 18% of respondents say they plan to accelerate their investment in artificial intelligence but two-thirds don’t yet know if they will. It is in this area that managers are most hesitant to invest in the next five years.
Financing: Europe lagging behind
The other point of uncertainty raised during the seminar concerns financing. European states are currently displaying ” a delay “, pointed out the economists. In a well-documented study unveiled last week, OFCE economists highlighted Europe’s investment deficit in terms of innovation and research and development. And the outlook is far from improving given the budgetary constraints which are once again weighing on Europe with the return of the financial rules of the European Commission after the Covid parenthesis. “ To make up for this delay, it is necessary for euro zone countries to stimulate their hourly productivity gains by adopting a more ambitious policy of innovation, competition, flexicurity and professional training. These policies are all the more crucial as they are necessary to succeed in the technological (automation, digitalization, AI) and ecological transition of our economies. », explained economist Sébastien Bock from the research center, contacted by The gallery.
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Regarding France, researchers recommend “to increase the efficiency of spending by better targeting innovation incentive schemes. For example, France has implemented the research tax credit (CIR), one of the most generous innovation support schemes in the OECD. However, its effectiveness is limited because its access criteria do not take into account the size of the companies, thus favoring large companies which would have invested even without this system. The preserve of large groups, this tax loophole is called into question every year during budgetary debates. But few governments have questioned the research tax credit.
Research tax credit: a maximum of 2,000 jobs created per year, the niche struggles to convince
