Expected with suspicion by connoisseurs of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Captain America: Brave New World is beginning to be the subject of predictions regarding its box office score.
Not all Hollywood executives have the fire besieging their villa as their main concern. Those at Disney, Marvel Studios section, are more worried about the release of Captain America : Brave New Worldfourth part of the saga which began in 2011 already. The feature film directed by Julius Onah (The Cloverfield Paradox) is decisive for the MCUwhich once dominated the box office several times a year. But since then, there have been the failures of Phase 5, 12 Disney+ series, the writers’ strike and its repercussions on Kevin Feige’s meticulous planning.
In crisis, the studio slowed down in 2024, with only one successful film, Deadpool & Wolverine. In 2025, business will resume with this new Captain America. The stakes are enormous: the film must determine whether audiences will remain hooked on this universe’s most lucrative sagas despite the problems and the laborious renewal of its headliners. Indeed, we cannot say that Anthony Mackie’s taking office, recounted in the series Falcon and the Winter Soldierwas an event.
Produced in pain, Brave New World don’t go wild in American theaters. First estimates on its box office score are already available.
Captain America le Brave
The first big piece of this year 2025 will therefore be released on February 12 in France and February 14 in the United States. Specializing in box office predictions and marketing campaign analysis using a survey system, the service The Quorum is among the first to estimate its score during its opening weekend. And according to his information, relayed by Deadline, the film could raise between $86 and $95 million over 3 days.
For any blockbuster, this would be a very respectable score but not for such a project. At the very beginning of the MCU, the most modest first part started with 65 million dollars. The second with 95 million dollars. The third, propelled by the promise of Civil War and the introduction of Spider-Man, quickly reached $179 million, ending its run with more than $1.1 billion in revenue. This was the time when the studio passed this bar very regularly.
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Certainly, Captain America 4 is not intended to measure up to its predecessor and such a start would place it above some of Marvel’s recent failures, such as The Marvels and its pitiful 46 million, to a lesser extent The Eternals and its 71 million or Black Widow and its 80 million. What’s more, estimates do not take into account the American long weekendextended on Monday by Presidents Day. On this model, the film risks exceeding the $100 million mark in 3 days.
But we must remember on the one hand that it is still one of the most important sagas of the franchise, on the other hand that it has a lot, a lot to repay. According to rumors, poor test screenings and reshoots blew up the budget, taking it World of Reel in a range of $350 million to $375 million ! Suffice to say that with such sums advanced, at such a crucial stage of the license, the figures put forward by The Quorum are not the most reassuring.
Marvel’s future at stake
The question of maintaining it remains: Marvel Studios branded productions tend to drop very strongly after a week of operationthe fault of this very strong commitment from the “fan” public, who generally go to see the films as soon as they are released. Ant-Man 3 for example, had started with a much higher score of 106 million dollars, before losing 70% of its revenues and reaching a worldwide total of 476 million dollars, which makes it a big flop that would turn into a disaster in the case of Brave New World.
Captain America 2he held on and finished with 714 million on the clock. A balance sheet which would be too low for a staggering budget, but which would limit the damage. Without mentioning profitability, which has a good chance of being zero if the rumors are true, that’s the issue that tenses the executives of the firm: in addition to the diehards, will the general public travel en masse, over long distances, to witness the new adventures of this new hero? Will this opus have the trajectory ofAnt-Man 3 or that of Captain America 2 ?
This is the question that will measure the future popularity of the MCU, and even superhero cinema, in this tights-laden year 2025. Better for Kevin Feige to start promoting Fantastic 4 peace of mind. And even among the competition, which is once again relaunching its extended universe, the case Captain America is probably scrutinized carefully…
