Real estate rates have continued to fall for a year. But one indicator worries professionals.
Is the fall in real estate rates about to end? If opinions still differ, more and more voices are being raised to warn of an upcoming increase. Why and especially when could this increase take place?
As a reminder, the past year has been particularly favorable to borrowers. “The rate of real estate loans has constantly declined. It went from 4.20% at the end of 2023 to 3.32% in December 2024,” summarizes the Observatoire Crédit Logement in its latest report. A continued decline which has restored purchasing power to borrowers.
For the coming year, the Observatory wants to be optimistic: despite France's unstable political and budgetary context, 2025 should be positive for real estate. The average mortgage rate should continue to fall, he believes. But these positive projections are tempered by certain specialists.
There is a figure that experts are looking at carefully and which is starting to worry: the 10-year OAT rate, which is the rate at which the French State borrows over 10 years. A figure which is a reference in the real estate loan market.
-And over the past month and the fall of the Barnier government, the rate at which France borrows has skyrocketed. Which makes big names in the sector fear an increase in real estate loans in the coming months. In a note published in mid-January, the broker Empruntis advised “purchase candidates not to wait any longer if their project is mature”. Five days later, it was the turn of Pretto, another real estate broker, to issue a similar opinion.
In addition, at the start of the year “banking establishments are showing themselves to be particularly receptive to loan requests, multiplying attractive offers to attract new customers”, explains Nassima Khiari, head of banking relations for the Empruntis Group. It is therefore the ideal time to borrow before a possible rise in rates.
However, several voices are being raised to calm fears: at the time of the dissolution of the National Assembly in June 2024, this rate had also skyrocketed without significantly impacting real estate rates, specifies the spokesperson for the Vousfinancer site to BFMTV .
We will therefore have to remain attentive and observe in the coming weeks whether the rate at which France borrows continues to remain as high. According to projections from the Crédit Logement Observatory, the rate at which France borrows should remain at a fairly high level – above 3% – until the fall of 2026, which could be detrimental.
